Ukraine’s victory plan – what the West expects – TSN Exclusive

However, not for another Ramstein, but for a meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A meeting of the allies at the German Ramstein air base, which was supposed to be held for the first time at the level of state leaders on October 12, where they discussed further military assistance to Kyiv under the new Victory Plan for Ukraine, as which was reported by The same ZDF, in the future it is not planned at all.

As I already wrote TSN.ua, Because of Hurricane Milton in Florida last week, the US President, Secretary of State and other US officials canceled their trip to Ramstein. In addition, their visit to Germany on October 10-13 should be the first state visit in the last 40 years. However, Republicans and Donald Trump personally began to use the topic of the visit of the president and other US officials for their electoral purposes. They say that the American leadership is leaving the country when the most powerful hurricane in the last 100 years approaches Florida.

Another “Ramstein” has become the enemy of the American election campaign. The other day, the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, who blocked the acceptance of further military and financial aid to Ukraine for 7 months at the request of Trump (from September 2023 to April 2024 – ed.), said: “No I have no desire. for more funding to Ukraine, and I “I hope that will not be necessary. If Trump wins, I believe he can end this conflict.”

So, when will the next Ramstein take place? What to expect from Biden’s visit to Germany? But what were the results of the European visit by President Zelensky, who presented the Impact Plan last week in the main EU countries? Read on the website TSN.ua.

The West is not in Ukraine: everything will be decided after the US elections

Considering the progress of the American election campaign, it is not the next “Ramstein” at the level of the heads of state (although the allies can traditionally meet in the form of ministers of defense), or permission to strike with long-range weapons – Western range in the deep. of Russia’s borders, Ukraine should not wait until the US elections on November 5. After all, the Trump team will use any foreign policy issue against the Biden-Harris Administration, claiming that the current democratic authorities do not care about the problems of ordinary Americans.

The other day, at a campaign rally in California, Trump went even further, saying “World War II could start in 3-4 months” because of the wrong actions of the Democratic Administration, in the opinion of his headquarters. He has been using the slogan about “World War III” for a long time. But, now, speaking of specific dates, Trump is also appealing to a recent poll The Wall Street Journal in seven hotly contested key swing states. Voters there believe that Trump will handle Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran better than Harris.

Thus, Ukraine was not only a hostage to the US election campaign, but actually caught between two fires.

On one side, Since October 7, 2023, when the terrorist Hamas attacked Israel, the media discussion in America has been increasingly dominated by the issue of the Middle East. Especially after Iran’s first direct missile and drone attack on Israel in April of this year. The second happened in early October – a month before the US elections.

For two weeks, the Biden administration has been working with Israel to reduce the retaliation against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon and prevent further escalation in the Middle East before the US elections. And, according to the latest information NBC News, Israel has narrowed its targets and will not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

On the other hand, The Republican team will again definitely use any step of the Biden-Harris Administration regarding Ukraine, President Zelensky himself and the Ukrainian officials for their electoral purposes, again re- claim that Trump, if he wins, will end Russia’s war against Ukraine in 24. hours.

This already happened at the end of September, when the Trump campaign cleverly exploited Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to a plant in Scranton (the traditional state of Pennsylvania with a Democratic governor) that produces 155mm artillery shells . TSN.ua Mike Johnson later wrote that Mike Johnson accused Ukraine of meddling in the American elections and even asked President Zelensky to fire the Ukrainian Embassy in the United States, Oksana Markarova.

So, as we can see, all important foreign policy issues, taking into account the decisions on Ukraine (permission to strike Russia, giving more weapons to the Armed Forces than -Ukraine and, in the end, despite the nuclear threats of the Russian Federation), the Biden. – The Harris Administration has stopped it.

However, it should be noted that from the very beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the Biden Administration, and the EU, have followed a policy of containment: otherwise Putin understands that he cannot take all of Ukraine conquest (because the Biden- The Harris Administration still confirms that they defended the independence of at least Kyiv – ed.), and, at some point, they will agree to negotiations; either he dies, or he is removed from power. And then some changes are possible, according to the West, within Russia, and, as a result, regarding the war against Ukraine.

European tour: what else needs to be done

However, waiting for Putin to die to see if there will be big changes in the Russian Federation is a rather wrong way to go. As I already wrote TSN.ua, from the sale of its oil, even despite the Western embargo of $ 60 (for this, according to Western sanctions from December 2022, Russia can sell its oil – ed.), Moscow will earning more than $15 billion per month from sales The Kremlin spends about $10 billion on the war against Ukraine per month. So, for example, the $5 billion that Russia earns from monthly oil sales is enough to establish its production of Harpy-3 attack drones in China, according to Reuters, investment there for the war against Ukraine.

In addition, the military-industrial complex of the United States and the EU together cannot provide the necessary quantities of ammunition and weapons to the Defense Forces of Ukraine to be at least equal to the Armed Forces of the Russia, which is supported by China, North Korea and Iran. . That is, in the third year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, it turned out that the West, in terms of the volume of military production, cannot resist the new evil axis of Russia-China-Belarus -Iran-DPRK.

Is this why Ukraine is being forced to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia on terms unfavorable to us? To some extent yes. However, the main problem is the inability of Western leaders, who are on the verge of falling in rating, to explain to their societies why it is necessary to invest more money in their own defense industry to help Ukraine, which is holding back. the Russian invasion and, of course, the Third World War, which the Trump campaign is so actively discussing. As a result of election battles in the US and the EU, he was frozen in uncertainty and unable to make any decisions on further aid to Ukraine.

This is clearly demonstrated in Germany, recently the first economy in the EU to go into recession because there is no more cheap Russian gas. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition levels have left much to be desired. The state elections in Thuringia and Saxony in September only confirmed that the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany party won in Thuringia; in Saxony she took second place; in third place in both states is the pro-Russian Federation Sarah Wagenknecht, a left-wing pro-Russian party that also opposes continued aid to Ukraine.

Therefore, it is not surprising that next year, when parliamentary elections are held in Germany, Scholz’s coalition has pledged only 4 billion euros in aid to Ukraine – half as much as in 2024. Against background of the canceled Ramstein, the President of Ukraine went on a tour of Europe. With the US elections and the situation in the Middle East against the backdrop, the balance of power in favor of Ukraine in the EU leaves much to be desired. Vladimir Zelensky visited London, Paris, Rome and Berlin, where he presented the details of the Ukraine Victory Plan to his friends. According to the adviser to the head of the OPU, Mikhail Podolyak, soon his main points will be revealed to Ukrainians.

“We are preparing for new discussions that will take place this week.

However, during President Zelensky’s European visit last week, there was a lot of talk about peace, diplomacy and negotiations. Unfortunately, this is now mainstream in European capitals. This is partly due to the unsuccessful resistance of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the summer of 2023. Even if the allies did not give us enough weapons for this. But for the most part, the problem is that our partners do not want to invest more money in their defense business centers (explaining to their voters why it is necessary do this).

At the same time, always note that Russia’s war against Ukraine must be decided at the negotiating table. But how to achieve this? None of our Western friends provide an answer to this question.