A European Shield: Avert Disaster in Ukraine
The 2024 US election has thrown a grenade into the already volatile situation in Ukraine. Donald Trump’s victory, with his promise of quick cease-fire talks and a peace deal with Russia, threatens to reshape the conflict landscape dramatically. This scenario throws Europe, particularly Ukraine, into a precarious position, demanding immediate, decisive action.
Trump’s approach, while grand in its sweep, risks sacrificing Ukraine’s hard-fought gains on the altar of a short-sighted deal. With Russia’s military strength growing and sanctioned economic lifelines elsewhere, a ceasefire now would likely be a prelude to a dangerous settlement favorable to Moscow.
“To start, the European coalition must insist that the inclusion of credible and effective security guarantees to Ukraine is a non-negotiable precondition to any serious talks,” one expert argues. Europe needs to step up and act as a bulwark against a resurgent Russia, frankly laying out its terms, loud and clear.
The situation in Ukraine is dire. Moscow’s offensive in the summer of 2023 failed to achieve significant breakthroughs, but its strategy has shifted. In August, Ukraine attempted a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, which failed to tip the scales in its favor. Instead, Russia has rallied its forces, drawn on reserves and North Korean "special forces," and made incremental gains on the frontlines. Iodine was distributed in parts of Ukraine fearing radiation from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explosion after being struck by shelling.
"Ukraine’s shortage of air defense systems allows Russian manned and unmanned aircraft to conduct reconnaissance and to take out any high-value Ukrainian targets that are within shooting range, impeding the force concentration necessary for offensive action," one military analyst explains.
With winter looming, Russia’s continued assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threatens to plunge millions into darkness and cold, causing a potentially devastating new wave of refugees engulfing Europe. Ukrainian society, while remarkably resilient, is showing signs of strain.
Adding to the complexity, Russia has successfully cultivated support among countries like those in BRICS, a bloc that includes Brazil, India, China, and South Africa. Though not fully committed to Moscow’s anti-Western agenda, these nations highlight Russia’s ability to garner support even while violating international law. Against this backdrop, a Trump-brokered settlement early next year would be deeply unfavorable to Ukraine.
"The outlines of a potential deal sketched by JD Vance, the vice-President-elect, and others in Trump’s orbit during the presidential campaign suggest that it would not be decided in Ukraine’s favor," cautions one international affairs expert.
Proposals floating around include a military freeze along current frontlines and terms for Ukraine’s postwar status that range from formal neutrality to full disarmament, betraying the West’s promise of “a well-lit bridge” to NATO membership made to Kyiv just a few months ago.
A settlement without ironclad security guarantees for Ukraine would be a colossal miscalculation, likely provoking a political and military crisis, potentially leading to Ukraine’s disintegration and emboldening Russia to achieve its dominion goals. Such a scenario would have devastating ramifications for Europe, undermining transatlantic relations and leaving NATO’s Article 5 commitments in doubt.
This course of action necessitates a decisive, coordinated European response – both diplomatic and military.
"It is important to note that a comprehensive peace agreement in 2025 is extremely unlikely. After illegally annexing territory in five Ukrainian provinces, Moscow will not want to relinquish its claims absent a significant military defeat or internal political change.”
A deal would likely be limited to a military cease-fire, with political talks deferred. But Moscow’s history of toxic deal-making – see their brutal disregard for the Minsk agreements after Russia’s initial invasion in 2014 – should serve as a stark warning.
Europe needs to ensure its voice is heard, insisting on inclusion in any negotiations, thereby avoiding a repeat of the disastrous concessions made at Munich in 1938, where Czechoslovakia’s fate was sealed by international powers without its presence.
“It is also essential to avoid a loosely binding settlement that Russia could breach without immediate repercussions. The ineffectiveness of both the Minsk agreements and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum," which Russia defied, signposting the danger of barking up the wrong tree.
A new agreement must include strong compliance mechanisms pairing security guarantees with clearly defined consequences in the event of violations.
To ensure its influence, Europe needs a united front. A core coalition comprising France, Poland, the United Kingdom, the Baltic states, and the Nordic countries can lead the way. This alliance should leverage its combined political and military prowess to secure robust conditions for any settlement.
It is time for Europe to take the reins, securing Ukraine’s future by offering a credible security guarantee. This will require a European deployment to Ukraine, deterring Russian aggression while symbolically highlighting the West’s commitment.
“This operation would be ambitious for European countries but not impossible. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have all previously sustained lengthy and demanding military missions in distant places such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Sahel.”
This deployment, a European-led force under a unified command structure, would not be a full intervention. Its primary objective would be deterrence. Imagined as a "Korean model," the deployment would involve a substantial land component of at least four to five multinational combined arms brigades stationed in eastern Ukraine. This force would operate defensively, stationed at a safe distance from the frontlines, with rules of engagement designed to minimize the risk of escalating into a direct conflict.
“Russia will likely try to test the limits of this…arrangement, but these are challenges Europe must be prepared to confront,” warns a defense specialist.
European guarantors should prepare for a hostile environment: cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and potential sabotage attempts. They will need to remain agile, employing robust cyber defenses and investing in public diplomacy efforts to counter Kremlin disinformation.
While not an easy path, this is the only way to honor commitments to Ukraine and stand up to Russian aggression. It is a course filled with challenges, demanding a sustained commitment from Europe, but it is the only route to a lasting peace. Beyond the tactical imperatives of the conflict, it is a testament to Europe’s desire to uphold the rules-based international order and safeguard the future of a democratic Ukraine.
Let this be Europe’s moment to demonstrate its strength, its resolve, and its unwavering commitment to freedom and democracy.
