The proposal from the Ukrainian security expert may seem like an echo of the controversial statement by NATO adviser Stian Jenssen during Arendal Week this summer.
There he said:
– I actually think that a more likely solution is that they give up territory, and then they get NATO membership in return.
Orysia Lutsevych is deputy head of the Russia department at the renowned think tank Chatham House.
She puts it this way:
– I can imagine one scenario in which Ukrainians can accept the loss of territory: That we become a NATO member from the moment we have an agreement on a ceasefire. It really could have stopped the war.
Stian Jenssen made the controversial statements during a panel debate during Arendal Week earlier in August.
Photo: Atlantic Committee / Screenshot
Stian Jenssen made the controversial statements during a panel debate during Arendal Week earlier in August.
Photo: Atlantic Committee / Screenshot
She emphasizes that membership must come immediately, and that there can be no room for a process after a ceasefire.
“Safety guarantee”
Jenssen withdrew his statement after much international attention.
– It came out wrong. I shouldn’t have said it that way, he said then.
When NRK asks Lutsevytsj if she agrees with Stian Jenssen in his original statement, she replies:
– NATO can stop the war by inviting Ukraine to become a member and protect the territory that is still under Kyiv’s control. This is not the same as what he said. He said in exchange for peace. But Ukrainians want a security guarantee that entails unwavering protection, including from nuclear powers.
Jenssen said nothing about the time perspective for a possible process.
The timing is decisive
The Ukrainian people do not want to trade territory for peace.
Ukrainian authorities reacted strongly to the proposal.
– Exchange territory for a NATO umbrella? It’s ridiculous, wrote Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The President of Ukraine was strongly against Stian Jenssen’s proposal. He has not responded to the proposal from Lutsevych.
Photo: Presidentkontoret i Ukraina
Oleg Nikolenko, spokesman for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called any such discussion off “completely unacceptable.”
Nato: Arms the way to peace
But Ukraine may come to accept an agreement with Russia if NATO membership comes immediately, Lutsevych believes.
– If the parts of Ukrainian territory that are temporarily occupied by Russia remain there, while the rest of Ukraine immediately becomes a NATO member, then I think it could be relevant for Ukraine.
NATO’s comment on the researcher’s plan is scant. Spokesperson Oana Lungescu tells NRK that it is up to Ukraine to decide both when and how the country can achieve lasting peace.
– The greater success Ukraine has on the battlefield, the stronger its position at the negotiating table. Therefore, weapons are the way to peace, and NATO focuses on supporting Ukraine as long as it is needed.
– Not unthinkable
Researcher Lars Peder Haga at the Norwegian Air Force School says the proposal for territory in exchange for NATO membership seems “far-fetched”.
He points out that such a solution requires both an agreement between Ukraine and Russia and a unison agreement from NATO’s 30 member states.
Ukraine and Russia are currently far from negotiations.
Getting Sweden into NATO as a member took a long time and was difficult.
Lars Peder Haga at the Norwegian Air Force School
Photo: Defense
– So to me it sounds like a very far-fetched solution now and in the foreseeable future.
At the same time, it is not inconceivable that the war could end with an agreement on a cease-fire in which Russia will be left with areas they have occupied, Haga believes.
– Because it is so demanding to take them back, says Haga to NRK.
He says he thinks the war could last for several years to come.
– What is a bit funny is that once a war has lasted a long time, it is often even more difficult to end, because both parties have invested and lost so much.
What could be the outcome of the war?
– The most likely thing is that it will end with a cease-fire agreement. Whether it will be concluded with the borders standing as they are now, or whether the Ukrainians manage to push the Russians back to the February 24 borders, or completely out of all the territories they have occupied since 2014, is difficult to say.
2023-08-31 20:54:49
#NATO #membership
