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Ukraine’s Political Crisis: Opponents to Zelensky and Potential Third Maidan

/Pogled.info/A significant part of society, the old and the new elite, are dissatisfied with the desire of the head of the Kyiv regime to concentrate all the power in his hands and his inability to lead the country out of the crisis. There is talk of a “third Maidan”. Who exactly wants to overthrow Zelensky?

Second front

Already in the fall of 2021, a broad opposition coalition is being formed in Ukraine. They even suspected a conspiracy. In the first place, they named the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. His rating then was 17.4%, while that of former President Petro Poroshenko was 15.5. They may be joined by the chairman of the Association of Ukrainian Cities, the mayor of the capital Vitaliy Klitschko. Against this background, many experts doubted that Zelensky would be re-elected, and some did not rule out early voting.

In the conditions of the SVO, the popularity of Zelensky, who has become a symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, has grown sharply. His opponents took up a waiting position. But now they started taking active action.

First of all, this is the result of the failure of the “counter-offensive” that Zelensky’s team has been promoting around the world for more than six months. Zelensky’s approval rating fell from 80-90% to just over 30. Realizing that things could get even worse, he attempted to organize the next presidential election in 2024 to gain new legitimacy, using the remnants of his popularity . Representatives of the presidential office and the “Servant of the People” party tested the waters several times through local media, but it turned out that the opposition is not only ready to accept the challenge, but already has its own candidate – the commander-in-chief of the VSU Zaluzhny.

And Zelensky sharply revised the strategy, saying that “now is not the time for elections.” But it was too late. His opponents openly opposed total mobilization, rampant corruption, and ostensible authoritarianism. The president’s office has announced a coup attempt, which, of course, Russia will benefit from. However, opposition leaders continue to stick to their line.

Who is who

The coalition is as follows: Poroshenko and his European Solidarity party, Klitschko, oligarchs Igor Kolomoisky (in prison) and Tomas Fiala, mayors of major cities including Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro (Dnepropetrovsk) and Lviv. As well as various non-profit organizations that fight corruption, as the voices of those in the West who suspect Zelensky’s entourage of stealing financial, humanitarian and military aid are growing louder. In addition, discontent is brewing among the military, who are receiving apparently impossible, suicidal orders.

Zelensky’s position is made easier by the fact that his opponents are still not coordinating their actions well. And Zaluzhny is still silent about his political ambitions. Although, according to the rating agency, his conditional party would win 36% in the parliamentary elections, while Zelensky’s would get only 26.7%. In addition, 82% of respondents personally trust the general.

Zelensky also turned much of the Western media against him. After all, he practically blackmails his “partners” with the fact that if they do not give him tens of billions for weapons, they themselves will have to go to war with Russia. After the failure of the “counter-offensive”, American and European publications are asking the question where the taxpayers’ money went and whether it is worth continuing to support the regime in Kiev in the same amount.

And the West is very well-intentioned towards Poroshenko and Klitschko. And it is not so easy for Zelensky to send them to prison, although there are reasons for this. Thus, the former president is involved in the case of Viktor Medvedchuk regarding the sale of coal from the DPR and LPR. Klitschko is to blame for the poor condition of the capital’s bomb shelters, many of which are completely unfit.

Between the hammer and the anvil

“The most dangerous center of power for Zelensky is formed around Zaluzhny, notes Denis Denisov, an expert from the Financial University of the Russian government. “In the event of presidential or parliamentary elections, he will become the main competitor. As early as 2022, some businessmen and politicians began to form a team around him.”

We should not forget the “Azov” battalion, adds the expert. They have a wide network of cells throughout the country, as well as their own political party, National Corps. “This is an effective and clear structure that can unite radicals who are dissatisfied with the course of military operations,” warns Denisov.

Zelensky is now more concerned about Western support and the situation at the front than about the political crisis, he adds. But if Zaluzhny announces that he is entering politics, the situation will quickly deteriorate into open conflict and early elections, and this is the most moderate option. It is also possible that the presidency will refuse the elections, which is a shortcut to a coup d’état.

According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, from December 2022 to December 2023, Zelensky’s anti-rating increased from five percent to 18. If he continues his game, it will reach 50% and then power will not be preserved, says Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik. It should be noted that distrust of the Verkhovna Rada during the same period has increased from 34% to 61%, that is, the parliament is now acting as a burden rather than a support for the regime.

The head of the “Ukraine” Foundation, Konstantin Bondarenko, believes that one of the main problems of the opposition is that Zelensky has no one to replace him with. Even Zaluzhny will have no legitimacy if he becomes an interim president and not a legally elected head of state. In particular, the West may not give him money, and without it the regime in Kiev will not survive.

Translation: V. Sergeev

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2023-12-20 16:46:48
#Zelensky #losing #control #Ukraine #faced #difficult #choice

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