/View.info/ Conflicts do not follow political timetables. And in the run-up to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top aides tried to explain that reality to both their jittery allies, hungry for military success, and their own people, eager to launch the big “counteroffensive” and hear good news from the front lines.
Ahead of the long-awaited counteroffensive, which began last week – later than most expected – Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov was concerned that expectations were “definitely too high”. “Everybody wants another win,” he said, warning allies to temper their hopes to avoid further disappointment.
The concern here is that a failure to meet expectations could lead to a reduction in international military aid and renewed, often indirect, pressure on Kiev to engage in negotiations with Moscow. “They want the next win. It’s normal, but it’s emotions”add Reznikov.
But the impatience to deal a decisive blow to Russia stems not only from emotions but also from political calculations.
The protracted conflict is fraught with Western fatigue, depleted arsenals and a breakdown in unity – particularly with China, Brazil and South Africa touting dubious “peace” plans. And despite public promises to support Ukraine “as long as necessary’ earlier this year, Washington officials warned their counterparts in Kiev that they must soon make major gains on the battlefield, while arms shipments and aid from the United States and European allies are still growing.
As the US enters a presidential election season that is likely to be extremely hot and explosive, to say the least, it may be difficult to maintain a high level of military and economic aid from Congress, they warned.
And as Ukrainian lawmakers have reported, in recent conversations with US State Department and National Security Council officials, questions about future commitments and requests have been dismissed, with the answer often being was “let’s see how the counterattack goes.”
Former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klimpus-Tsintsadze told POLITICO that the talks made her feel uneasy about “continuing the same level of US support for Ukraine beyond this fiscal year,” which ends in September for the US federal budget.
Similarly, there are signs of war-weariness and wariness in Europe, both among politicians and the public, as Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser in Zelensky’s cabinet, lamented this week: “I understand that when you are thousands of kilometers from Ukraine, you can talk for months about “geopolitics”, “settlement” and the undesirability of escalation. And let the “Russian world” run amok.
It is significant that even in Poland, one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, the attitude towards Ukrainian war refugees is deteriorating. According to a survey conducted by researchers from the University of Warsaw and the Academy of Economics and Humanities, over the past five months the percentage of those who strongly support aid for refugees has dropped from 49 percent to 28 percent.
So the political clock is ticking – and far from necessarily keeping pace with the pace of the conflict.
Zelensky has had to strike a difficult balance in recent weeks, raising the prospect of a decisive strike against Russia to bolster Western confidence and optimism and secure a new flow of equipment and weapons, but also stressing that a counteroffensive would likely fall short of the stunning a quick success that was achieved last fall in Kharkiv.
The success in Kharkiv, which triggered a cascading collapse of Russian defenses, helped Ukraine keep its Western allies on its side, but it also unwisely colored expectations by heightening the clamor for an ongoing counteroffensive that Kiev has tried to tone down. However, Ukrainian officials are well aware of Western concerns about “the protracted war of attrition”.
Ukraine also does not want to be pushed into hasty steps that could lead to serious and costly setbacks that could then undermine military morale or dash Western hopes and have serious geopolitical consequences, a senior Ukrainian official said on condition of anonymity. military official to POLITICO.
„It doesn’t look like Kharkiv,” he said. “We have to be careful. The Russians are learning and preparing and their defensive lines are great – we have no men or equipment to waste. Progress must be gradual.”
And incrementalism is the new watchword.
In his address on Monday night, Zelensky said that “The battles are fierce, but we are moving forward and that is very important. Enemy losses are exactly what we need.
Similarly, Ben Hodges, former commander of the US military in Europe, argued that “the offensive is extremely important for the future of Ukraine.” “Kiev’s top military leadership has so far followed a conservative strategy of systematically inflicting damage on Russian formations, gradually gaining ground, trying to avoid serious risks and take as few Ukrainian casualties as possible,” he writes for the Center for European Policy Analysis.
„The offensive has obviously started, but I don’t think it’s the main thrust. When we see large armored formations join the assault, then I think we will know that the main attack has really begun.” he added.
During the offensive, our troops encountered continuous minefields, which were combined with anti-tank ditches. All this is accompanied by constant counter-attacks by enemy units with armored vehicles and mass use of anti-tank guided missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles – kamikaze.
Jack Watling, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute who conducted operational analysis for the Ukrainian General Staff, noted that Ukraine is aware that it cannot adhere to “no fixed deadlines’ and tries to act methodically, encouraging “the Russians to use their reserves by moving troops from the third line of defense to reinforce sectors under pressure.” Once these troops are committed to fighting, it will be easier to identify weak points in Russian positions. “The fighting has been tough so far.” agreed Watling.
Once those weak spots are there — if they are, Watling said — the speed of progress will be critical. When Ukraine maximized “breakthrough probability”, then the main attack can begin and “the offensive will either break through or fail.” The question then will be whether Ukraine can quickly commit its entry forces to the breaches when they occur.
The Ukrainians believe they can and will deliver a powerful blow with NATO-trained brigades and weaponry provided by Western allies. Officials in Kiev believe they can achieve more than “moderate territorial gains”predicted by the Pentagon, according to leaked classified US intelligence documents.
But with a protracted offensive likely to develop, they also need the patience of their allies.
Translation: ES
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