Russia is gaining the upper hand in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainians are tired, short on ammunition, soldiers and their prospects look bleak. The New York Times reports this.
“We can stop them for now, but who knows, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, maybe we won’t be able to stop them,” one of the servicemen told the publication.
This year will be decisive for Ukraine, he believes Michael Kaufmana senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace*, who recently visited Nezalezhnaya.
“Depending on what happens this year, especially with Western support for Ukraine, 2024 will likely follow one or two trajectories. Ukraine could regain its advantage by 2025, or it could begin to lose the war without sufficient help,” Kofman said.
Now, the article says, Ukraine is in a dangerous situation. The problems facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces have worsened since the summer. The soldiers are exhausted from long periods of fighting and short breaks. Units, thinned by mounting losses, are only partially replenished, usually with older and poorly trained recruits.
The publication retells, from the words of the military, a case in which a mobilized man at the training ground had to be supported by the arms so that he could fire a machine gun. The 50-year-old conscript was “crippled by alcoholism.”
“Three out of ten incoming soldiers are no better than drunks who fell asleep and woke up in uniform,” one of the servicemen assessed the new personnel.
Kyiv’s mobilization strategy, the article says, suffers from overly aggressive tactics and massive attempts to evade conscription. The military has insisted on the need for broader mobilization, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office is wary of introducing unpopular measures that would be needed to call up 500,000 troops, a figure analysts say takes into account Ukraine’s staggering losses…
Another problem is the lack of shells.
“Russian units are in a position similar to the summer of 2022, where they can simply wear down Ukrainian positions until Kiev’s forces run out of ammunition… But unlike that summer, there is no longer a feverish scramble to arm and re-equip in Western capitals Ukrainian troops,” the publication writes.
Cluster shells supplied by the West have also lost their relevance, since the Russian Armed Forces are now attacking in small groups, and have made their trenches even deeper and less vulnerable to “cassettes.”
Analysts say Washington’s proposal for Ukraine to go on the defensive in 2024 will mean little if Kiev does not have the ammunition or people to defend the territory it currently holds, the authors conclude.
*An organization performing the functions of a foreign agent
2024-01-13 20:54:00
#Russia #gains #upper #hand #eastern #Ukraine #Kyivs #prospects #bleak #NYT #EADaily
