Ukraine’s Bleak Outlook in Third Year of War with Russia
As Ukraine enters its third year of war with Russia, the outlook for the country seems bleaker than ever before. The initial optimism that Ukrainians had in pushing back Moscow’s troops and breaking the land bridge between the occupied Crimean peninsula and Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine has faded. The counteroffensive failed to make significant progress, resulting in opposing forces being entrenched along the 1,000km frontline. Now, Kyiv’s best hope is to hold the line and inflict higher casualties on the enemy than it incurs. However, Russian superiority in mobilizing men and defense industrial production poses a significant challenge to Ukraine’s resolve.
Despite the challenges, most Ukrainians remain determined to fight for their freedom. However, their forces are running low on ammunition and air defense interceptors. Additionally, the country needs to find approximately 500,000 new recruits this year. Wavering US military support and Europe’s struggle to make up for shortfalls in arms supplies further complicate the situation.
Military Situation:
The land battle in 2023 saw minor gains for Ukrainian forces compared to their lightning counteroffensive in 2022. Ukraine lost the eastern city of Bakhmut after a grueling nine-month battle, resulting in an estimated 30,000 Russian casualties. The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer 2023 only advanced 30km before grinding to a halt due to Russian minefields, fortifications, drone surveillance, and artillery strikes. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, admitted that the land war had reached a stalemate and that a technological revolution, including drones and electronic warfare, was necessary for Ukraine to regain the advantage.
Ukraine’s strategy of “active defense” aims to bleed the enemy while minimizing its own losses. On the other hand, Russia adopts a “meat-grinder” approach, recruiting vast numbers of soldiers who appear expendable on the battlefield. Western officials estimate that approximately 350,000 Russians have been killed or seriously injured since February 2022, while 70,000 Ukrainians have died and 120,000 have been seriously wounded. Russia claims to have recruited an additional 490,000 men in 2023, mostly through generous pay and the recruitment of convicts from prisons. In contrast, Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers who have been fighting for two years.
With the land war reaching a grim point, Ukraine has shifted its focus to using technology for daring attacks within occupied territory and Russia. The country’s biggest military achievements include drone and missile strikes against military facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces have reportedly sunk one-fifth of Russia’s Black Sea fleet stationed in the area. There has also been a significant increase in attacks deeper into Russian territory, targeting military facilities, munitions factories, and energy infrastructure. Ukraine aims to intensify these strikes in 2024 to disrupt the Kremlin’s war effort and bring the conflict home to ordinary Russians.
Economy and Trade:
Both Russia and Ukraine’s war economies experienced faster-than-expected growth last year. Despite western sanctions aimed at reducing the Kremlin’s revenues and its ability to fund the conflict, Russia managed to evade curbs on its oil exports. The Russian defense industrial complex has ramped up production of ammunition, drones, missiles, and armor. However, sanctions prohibiting western chip exports to Russia limit Moscow’s capacity to produce more sophisticated equipment. Russia’s annual artillery munition production has risen significantly, while EU and US production capacities remain lower but are expected to increase.
Ukraine’s economy suffered a catastrophic slump following Russia’s full-scale invasion but has since begun to recover. One positive development for Kyiv is that its attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea forced the Kremlin to withdraw its ships from the Ukrainian coast. This allowed Ukraine to restart regular cargo shipping from its Black Sea ports, restoring a major export route and vital economic lifeline. However, Russia’s defense spending surge has led to inflation, eroding real wages and living standards in a country where investments in infrastructure and public utilities are urgently needed.
Politics:
In Russia, ahead of Putin’s expected re-election in March, a new wave of repression against dissenting voices is taking place. Western politicians and regime critics have blamed Putin for the death of prominent critic Alexei Navalny. While opinion polls do not reflect signs of public turning against the president, anti-war criticism is outlawed in Russia, and any show of support for dissidents is crushed.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public support has been affected by war fatigue and fears of abandonment by western allies. He has faced criticism for his decision to replace the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces and accusations of eroding media freedom. Elections in Ukraine have also been suspended during the state of emergency. However, a survey conducted by the Kyiv-based Rating Group showed