The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian oil tanker and a Russian naval amphibious ship with a surface drone over the weekend, suggesting that the fighting is about to escalate.
The Ukrainian attack threatens Russia’s commodity exports through the Black Sea for the first time. Russia transports most of its world grain exports and 15-20% of its oil via this route. The insurance and transportation costs borne by Russia are likely to increase significantly in the future, but the European and global markets will also be exposed to risks.
AP video appears to show Ukrainian drone attack on Russian naval vessel
Source: User Generated Content authenticated by AP
Fighting is escalating as Ukraine’s reversal offensive progresses slower than officials expected and peace talks held by Saudi Arabia highlight the difficulty of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. .
“We are in an escalating stage of the fighting and it is an unpredictable situation,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia-Eurasian Center.
“Since the start of the counteroffensive, Ukraine has been trying to send a message to the Russian elite and the public that it could lead to an attack on Russian territory,” he said, adding that it is now “essential to Russian exports.” “They are trying to target Russia’s critical infrastructure, such as the Black Sea route,” he said.
The extent of the fighting’s escalation and its impact are unclear at this point, but economic interests outside of Russia could be hit as hard, if not worse, than Ukraine’s.
“Freights will rise significantly next week as the Black Sea transport risks are rising rapidly,” said Viktor Katna, head oil analyst at data analytics firm Kepler. The cost of transporting Russian oil to the West Bank could rise by up to 50%, he said.
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:Ukraine’s Black Sea Drone Attacks Signal a Rapidly Expanding War(excerpt)
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2023-08-06 22:44:00
