According to the website Foreign Policy, Turkey will send cluster munitions to Ukraine, to help them tilt the war in their favor. The controversial weapon is banned in 110 countries through an international convention from 2008, including Norway.
The agreement prohibits the production, export, storage and use of cluster munitions. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is part of this convention.
– There have been unconfirmed observations where Ukraine has used smaller quantities of cluster munitions. This has been condemned by the mine and cluster commission, says Per Håkon Breivik, head of humanitarian mine and explosive clearance in Norwegian People’s Aid.
– Unacceptable consequences
The ban in the agreement applies to landmines and cluster munitions.
– The reason is that its use has completely unacceptable consequences. It kills and injures so many civilians that it is unacceptable from a humanitarian perspective, Breivik tells Nettavisen.
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He himself has 20 years’ experience in clearing explosives in, among other places, Bosnia and Mosul in Iraq.
– The common denominator in all the years I have worked, the civil consequences are enormous, unfortunately, he states.
Tom Røseth, principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Armed Forces College and head of their research group on Ukraine, believes that it is a very difficult balancing act for Ukraine.
– It is a trench war where such weapons are unfortunately part of the reality for states that have not signed the weapons ban. At the same time, it will have long-term consequences for the civilian population, he says.
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According to Røseth, Norway has several cluster munitions in stock.
– There is a reason why Norway does not want anything to do with it, and that the US would not send cluster munitions to Ukraine either, because it has such long-lasting consequences, says the defense expert.
– Unstable explosives
– Cluster munitions have such a high failure rate that thousands are left undetonated after the war. Civilians return to their homes, find cluster bombs which then detonate because they are so unstable. Then thousands are killed long after the war, explains Breivik in Norwegian People’s Aid.
As soon as the snow and frost disappear from Ukraine, Norwegian People’s Aid plans to start work on clearing away the remains of mines and cluster bombs in Ukraine. As a first step to facilitate the civilian population.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Sjmyhal stated in an interview last week that Ukraine is now the world’s largest minefield. He tells the South Korean news agency Yonhap that the war has created a 250,000 square kilometer minefield.
– Clearing cluster munitions is one of the most difficult things we do. It will take time. The weapon consists of such unstable explosives, so you can’t just move them either, he says.
– May affect Ukrainian population
If Ukraine uses cluster munitions against the front line, then the explosives will be left behind in what is Ukrainian territory. If the country gets these areas back, Ukrainian civilians may risk being killed by Ukrainian cluster munitions.
– Regardless of who gets that area after the war, it is a fact that this will remain and pose a great danger to the civilian population. This could end up affecting the Ukrainian population after the war, says Breivik.
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– What could be the consequence from the international community against Ukraine, if they use these weapons?
– It is hard to say. If Ukraine chooses to use it and its use is confirmed, they will be criticized for it. Will it have any consequences beyond condemnation from the humanitarian sector, I don’t think so. Does it matter that much for Ukraine, as the situation is now? Probably not, he replies.
Plays on both sides
Although most NATO countries have signed the agreement to neither export nor use cluster munitions, Turkey has not. The US has not done that either, but the superpower refused to deliver cluster munitions to Ukraine, according to Foreign Policy.
– NATO is used to Turkey having its own agenda. They have bought Russian weapons systems a few years back, which has been controversial. I don’t think this case will cause any strong reactions within NATO, says Røseth.
Turkey has also never joined NATO’s sanctions against Russia. Instead, they have continued to buy gas from the Russians, which has kept Russia’s exports to Europe alive. At the same time, they have donated weapons to Ukraine, most recently with cluster weapons.
Jacob Kaarsbo, senior analyst at the think tank Europe, believes that Turkey is more on the Ukrainian side than the Russian side. He believes that the upcoming elections in Turkey have a lot to say about how the country has behaved in the war.
– Erdogan cannot stand not trading gas with Russia. That is Erdogan’s big dilemma, he cannot let the population freeze this winter so close to the election, explains Kaarsbo.
– There is much Turkey has done that has been against Russian interests. Both with weapons to Ukraine and the diplomatic offensive they have had against Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the other countries in Central Asia, in order for them to escape the Russian grip, he adds.
