On Sunday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken visited the capital Kyiv, where they met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
After the visit, the two ministers met with the press, where Austin stated, among other things, that he hopes the war will weaken Russia as a great power in the future.
“We want to see Russia weakened to such an extent that the country can not do the kind of thing it has done with the invasion of Ukraine,” Austin said.
The startling statements meet with great reactions among the experts.
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– Does not look good
– We are in a period of great Russian weakness, so in reality they have already done so, says retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug to Dagbladet on Tuesday.
Until the start of the invasion, Dalhaug believes that Russia was seen as a military superpower, but since then the country’s strategic position has been severely weakened.
– That picture is completely gone, and right now it does not look good for Russia.
Something he thinks both the United States and Ukraine can benefit from.
– I read the statement from Austin as if there is a great agreement to go together against Russia to inflict a major military defeat on the country, which in turn can have major negative ripple effects for Moscow, says Dalhaug.
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May change power ratios
– Which countries can be affected by this?
“The weakening of Russia as a major power will affect the conflict in the Middle East and in Syria, because the president there is dependent on Russian support,” says Dalhaug.
He also mentions the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, where the war, which ended in 2020, has still not led to a permanent agreement between the two countries.
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Russia has so-called “peacekeeping forces” inside Azerbaijan, and it has been seen that the country has removed some of them for use in Ukraine. This could lead to Azerbaijan seeing Russia’s weakness and thus putting more pressure on Armenia, says the lieutenant general.
It does not end there either.
– Adopted a steeper stance
One of the most complicated and unresolved conflicts in the world today is the dispute over the southern Kuril archipelago off Japan, occupied by the Russians after World War II.
WORKED FOR MANY YEARS IN UKRAINE: The retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug has extensive experience in interpreting warfare. Photo: Alejandro Gomez.
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– Japan has joined the Western sanctions and condemned Russia. The country has taken a steeper stance on what rights Russian occupiers have on the islands, says Dalhaug.
Therefore, he believes that the ripple effects can be many, but that it could affect security in Europe to the positive.
– Because the war has gone so badly, many countries think that there are opportunities to amplify the negative trends and take advantage of them to inflict further losses on Russia.
Something Dalhaug sees in the recent reorganization of arms support and the increasing amount who have been notified to come to Ukraine.
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May have a bilateral effect
Senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), Una Hakvåg, believes that the decision from the USA to want to deprive Russia of a so-called great power status, can have a two-sided effect.
– One thing is the countries that are already negative to Russia, but the other is countries that have a difficult relationship with the United States. Russia can play on this, to bring in opponents to the United States and the West.
– Do you think that the harsh statements from the US can lead to Russia gaining more supporters?
– I do not know if they will get it, but not all countries in the world believe that the United States and the West should be the only great powers in the world, but who think it is good that there are other voices.
RESEARCHER IN RUSSIA: Una Hakvåg speaks Russian and has published several articles and research reports on Russian security and defense policy. Photo: FFI.
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A factor that can also affect a possible arms delivery.
– Not everyone is allowed to buy weapons from the West either, something Russia can take advantage of by conducting a more liberal arms trade with such countries, Hakvåg says.
– Russia has not succeeded
In great power is defined as a country with a particularly large world political influence.
The US Secretary of Defense was not clear on exactly how they wanted to weaken Russia, except for promises of more deliveries of new weapons to Ukraine.
– Putin needs a break
– Russia has been a declining superpower since the Soviet era, says Hakvåg, and adds:
– Economically and culturally, Russia today can only be considered a regional superpower. Militarily, Russia is also far weaker than the United States, NATO and probably also China. Russia’s status as a military superpower is largely due to the fact that the country has nuclear weapons. It is difficult to imagine how the United States will be able to change that.
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A sore point
Secretary of State Austin also stated that he did not want Russia to be given the opportunity to rebuild the military capability lost in the war so far.
– How can Russia be weakened as a great power? How is this done in practice?
– This is already being done with the sanctions against Russia. They affect both the economy and the defense industry, says Hakvåg.
As an example, the researcher mentions the technology and material that the country is not getting access to buy right now, as a result of the war.
– Russia is one of the few countries in the world that produces all defense equipment itself, they are basically not dependent on importing material from other countries, which in turn limits how much they are hindered.
Still, she mentions one sore point.
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– Although Russia produces most weapon systems itself, they are dependent on importing certain types of high technology, e.g. computer systems and microchips.
So far in the war, Russia has lost both military capacity and more troops. Exactly how many have been difficult to determine.
– If one thinks of weakening Russia as a military superpower, then it is not certain that they will be able to stop them from producing tanks, but through sanctions the country can be prevented from developing the most advanced weapon systems, she says, and elaborates:
– Russia is still technologically behind the West in a number of areas, including precision weapons, robotics and autonomous systems.
