After three talks between the parties in the Ukraine war, it may now appear that the next meeting of peace talks can bring better results, according to The Guardian.
Ahead of the next negotiation meeting, delegates from both sides of the talks are positive, and Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoljak says the talks have become more constructive.
«Vague references»
– We do not make concessions on a principled basis in any area. Russia understands this now, and Russia has begun to speak more constructively. I think we can get results in a few days, he says in a video recording, according to the newspaper.
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Can not save Putin
The Russian delegate, Leonid Slutsky, also describes significant progress, and hopes to reach a “common position”, according to Reuters.
“According to my personal expectations, this progress can grow in the coming days to a common position for both delegations, to documents for signing,” says Slutsky, without specifying the scope of the documents.
Associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth, says that he has seen vague references to the parties approaching something on a general basis, but so far chooses to be pessimistic.
– There is no sign that the acts of war will cease. Russia wants to launch an offensive and I think it will increase now that they have positioned themselves outside Kyiv and other cities.
– I have more faith in increased fighting, than that the negotiations will move a lot in the next few days. I think that is far ahead, says Røseth.
New negotiations
Røseth has also previously been to Dagbladet stated that he is afraid we must see more conclusive results on the ground before a political solution is possible.
He sees two possible scenarios that could help end the war.
One is that Russia is gaining more ground so that Ukraine can not tolerate more civilian losses. The second is that Ukraine is in such good condition that the costs are too large and long-lasting for Russia, Røseth explains.
PESSIMISTIC: Tom Røseth, associate professor’s head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, has little faith that the parties are approaching anything on a general basis so far. Photo: The Armed Forces
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The presidential adviser in Ukraine claims on Sunday night that talks are underway with Russia, according to the news agency Reuters.
– The Ukrainian president’s adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that Ukraine and Russia are actively holding talks on Sunday, where the situation around the besieged city of Mariupol is a special focus for Ukrainian authorities, they write.
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However, the Kremlin says that there are no talks on Sunday, but that they are scheduled to start on Monday. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, is said to have said that, according to the Russian news agency RIA, reports Reuters.
According to Anton Gerachenko, Adviser to the Minister of the Interior of Ukraine, Davyd Arakhamija, a politician in the People’s Party and a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, has stated that there will be negotiations with Russia at 10.30 local time – Ukraine is one hour ahead of Norway.
This is stated in a post on Gerachjenko’s Telegram profile on Monday. According to Arakhamija, the talks will take place on a video link.
– Everything Putin touches, dies
– Sounds bad
Former Chief of Defense, now Chief Researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, General Sverre Diesen, believes it is positive that the parties are speaking in that way, but says that one should be very sober when it comes to believing that a negotiated solution is imminent.
– This does not agree well with how the war develops. I want to believe that it is a desire to appear positive and willing to negotiate – more than an expression of a real willingness to negotiate, he says to Dagbladet.
– WORM POOR: General Sverre Diesen thinks the allegations do not agree well with how the war is developing. Photo: Rasmus Skaug / Dagbladet
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Diesen believes this is only likely if Russia has a very pessimistic assessment of the military situation.
– The only reason why Russia may be willing to deviate from its ultimate demands on Ukraine, is that they consider the military situation so difficult that they do not expect to be able to win the war, and dictate a solution.
– In reality, this is sensational news if it is actually correct as it is presented, Diesen points out.
He explains that if Ukraine has not given in on a principled basis, then in reality it is the same as Russia having significantly waived its demands.
– Putin has changed
Does Putin have more to lose?
– I still think he has, but he has also lost a lot already. He does not make it more conciliatory or careful. On the contrary – the closer he gets to a possible defeat and a military humiliation, the more brutal and ruthless the Russian warfare will be, says the chief researcher.
He emphasizes that Russia must win militarily to achieve what it wants.
– For Ukraine, it is sufficient to prevent Russia from winning, he concludes.
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