The whole world became shocked spectators to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the night of Thursday 24 February last year. After almost a year of full-scale war in Europe’s next largest country with Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine fighting for its survival as a sovereign state, several hundred thousand people have been killed in the brutalities. Flers will die in the coming year, and even more will be damaged for life. Even more will lose someone they love.
Nettavisen has covered the war closely since day one, but now it is time for a summary. What events from the war are worth noting? And how will it actually proceed? We have asked some of the leading experts in Norway what they remember especially well from the past year.
– The Russians were close to succeeding
– The first point must be the initial phase of the war, where the Russians were taking central institutions in Kyiv through sabotage groups and rapid advance, says Tom Røseth to Nettavisen. He is the head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College and leads their research group on Ukraine.
A year ago he was a relatively unknown name in the Norwegian public, but after 24 February he has become a frequently used source in the Norwegian press.
– The Russians were close to succeeding, and it was probably something that went under the radar for many. It was incredibly important that the attempt to take Kyiv was thwarted. The Russians had sabotage groups in Kyiv and were close to taking both Volodymyr Zelenskyj and his family, he has said that himself, says Røseth to Nettavisen.
The seas: Russia continues its attack on Kyiv
In the first days of the invasion, there was fierce fighting for the Hostomel airfield, located approximately four miles outside Kyiv. The Russians attempted to gain control of the airfield to form an air bridge. In other words, a place where they could undisturbed land planes with soldiers, weapons and supplies, which would then be used to take Kyiv. Control of the airport changed hands several times, but eventually the Russians had to give up the attempt.
– The Ukrainians fought hard, and together with good western intelligence they managed to prevent the Russians from forming an air bridge, says Røseth.
Ukrainian forces on the offensive
The second item on Røseth’s list is the counter-offensives last autumn. Then the Ukrainians first liberated large areas of land in Kharkiv, before they also took back Kherson city and large areas on the west side of the Dnipro river.
Read more: Russian map shows new retreat
– It still stands as a milestone for me. This war has engaged me violently. The dark thoughts when the Russians threatened to take Kyiv were turned into positive thoughts and an encouragement that it is indeed possible to resist and even beat the Russians. It positively surprised and was very impressive. It is absolutely amazing how quickly things progressed for the Ukrainians. I try to separate work and personal pleasure, but that was special. This war affects me personally, it is impossible to avoid it. It engages so enormously, says Røseth.
Read more: Ukraine appears to have launched another offensive. That surprises the expert
Attacks on critical infrastructure
The third item on Røseth’s list also engages, but in a completely different way.
– These are all the attacks against civilian targets, says Røseth.
From the start of the war, attacks have been seen on both civilian housing blocks and other civilian infrastructure. But where the attacks were scattered and seemed uncoordinated at the start of the war, they were systematized from October onwards. Since then, there have been about one powerful missile and drone attack a week on critical civilian infrastructure, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power.
– When we look ahead, it is exciting how the very solid Western arms aid will play a role, says Røseth.
On the same day Nettavisen spoke to Røseth, it became clear that Germany is sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and is also allowing other countries to do the same.
– Even before it became clear that Germany would allow the shipment of Leopard 2, significant deliveries of Western weapons had already been announced. In a few months, this will come into effect, but it is uncertain exactly when it will be delivered and have a military effect. The question is whether they manage to get it into use before the telephone is released. In any case, it is very important to get it in place by spring, when the Ukrainians predict that the Russians will attempt a new, major offensive, says Røseth.
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In autumn, the Russians mobilized 300,000 men. It is estimated that approximately half of them were deployed along the front quite immediately, while the remaining 150,000 have received training and education to be able to contribute to a new Russian offensive against Ukraine.
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– Ready for the cut
Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø, who is head of land forces at the War College, also had his life turned upside down from 24 February. From being an unknown name in the Norwegian public, it didn’t take long before “all” journalists were on the phone to talk to the experienced lieutenant colonel. He tells Nettavisen that Russia “shot themselves in the foot” from the start, by underestimating the Ukrainian resistance that would meet them.
– The invasion army was not designed for anything other than crippling sporadic Ukrainian resistance, and thus it was ready to be cut down when progress stopped and the Ukrainians counter-attacked, Ydstebø says in a written reply to Nettavisen.
He adds that this gave Putin poor conditions for taking Kyiv, which the Russian forces also failed to do.
– This led to the Russian plan to take political control of Ukraine falling apart and the military part of the invasion losing its political premise, and coming out crooked before they were properly underway, says the expert.
Read more: At least 45 killed after missile hits Ukrainian block of flats – photos cause a stir
He also shares Røseth’s opinion that the counter-offensives last autumn have been decisive for the course of the war so far.
– It is the battle for the strategic initiative, which started with Ukraine’s counter-offensive outside Kharkiv in May, and which Ukraine took and still holds after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson in November. It is expected that Russia will try to take it back in the spring, and again try to take the lead in the war, says Ydstebø.
– Why were these moments so important to what is happening now, and which could potentially happen further in the course of the war?
– The Russians’ failed initial strategy of destruction, where the prerequisite was political control in Kyiv, left them ill-prepared for the war of attrition that followed. While Ukraine mobilized both the armed forces and civil society when the invasion began, Russia has had problems replacing the initial losses and readjusting both the military power and society to a resource-consuming protracted war, without wanting to move to a larger mobilization (yet). The West’s cash support to Ukraine reinforced Russia’s problems in adapting to a tough war of attrition, even though it takes time for the sanctions to work and Russia can find alternative suppliers of high technology that it does not produce itself, the lieutenant colonel replies.
Tricked the Russians
Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI), speaks both Russian and Ukrainian, and he has extensive experience with Russian and Ukrainian defense and security policy.
– Which three decisive moments for the course of the war in Ukraine can you highlight from 2022?
– The natural thing is to highlight three developments. The first moment was when Russia withdrew from Kyiv and northern Ukraine in April. The second moment was the successful offensive at Kharkiv in September. The third moment was the liberation of Kherson in November, answers Bukkvoll.
– Why were these moments so important to what is happening now, and which could potentially happen further in the course of the war?
– Russia’s retreat in Kyiv demonstrated that they were unable to take the capital and the entire country. Had they succeeded in Kyiv, the Russians would probably have had partial control of the entire country. The Kharkiv offensive proved two things: The first was that Ukraine had significant forces for a counter-offensive in the east. The second is that they managed to fool the Russians. The Ukrainians had long talked about an offensive in Kherson, so the Russians moved forces there. They were simply deceived.
– Kherson was important, first of all, because it was the only regional capital that Russia had taken. The Russians had told the Ukrainians that “here we will stay forever”, that’s why there were such big scenes of jubilation. What all three moments have in common is that it demonstrated to the West that Ukrainian forces are capable of using donated equipment and adapting. It is said that the willingness of the Americans to give the Ukrainians weapons increased considerably, especially after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson. It is also speculated that it was only after the Kherson fiasco that the Russian elite began to realize that they could lose this war. According to Russian analysts, it was only when we saw divisions in the Russian elite, is the clear answer from the chief researcher.
Problematic claim
Director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Iver B. Neumann researches Russia, he has the following three points he would like to highlight from the war that has passed:
- February 24. That Russia, alongside Turkey (Cyprus), should break Europe’s peace by war of aggression was definitely a “Zeitenwende”, as Scholtz expressed it.
After the invasion of Ukraine, it has been written several times that this is the first time we see war in Europe since World War II. Neumann is aware that this is not correct.
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– It is problematic to claim. Turkey’s attack on Cyprus and the situation in the Balkans in the 90s are important to remember. The Russians are probably acting crazy if they are not to be blamed for things they have not actually done, says Neumann to Nettavisen.
“Zeitenwende” can be translated as “a historic turning point”, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used the word when he addressed the German Bundestag on February 24, the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine.
- Buttja. The fact that the war was to be waged not surgically, but dirty, with rape, torture and random executions of civilians, was probably absolutely decisive for Western support for Ukraine becoming so massive. It was now seen that not only war, but the use of punitive battalions, was back. This had not been seen since the early 40s.
- Putin’s statements that Ukraine does not have the right to life. This breaks with the very basis of international politics as we know it, namely that states recognize each other’s right to exist, is the most important thing Neumann draws from the ten months of war in 2022.
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