by Alessandro Pompei –
Initiated by the conquest of Avdiivka, recent developments in the Donbass conflict have led to significant territorial changes, prolonged battles and continued offensives and advances by Russian forces.
After surrounding and conquering Avdiivka, the forces of the Donetsk Republic, now integrated into the Russian army, extended their control by taking control of a series of strategic villages located in the predominantly Russian-speaking Ukrainian region of Donbass. These villages include Petrovsk, Lastochkino, Severnoye and Tonenkoe, but the advance of Russian forces continued, scoring a series of territorial victories that strengthen their position in the region.
Russian offensives are underway in several directions, with a particular focus in the areas around Avdeevka, a city where the Ukrainians had built massive fortifications over the past decade and from which several bombings were conducted in both the Donetsk Oblast and about the city of Donetsk; bombings often aimed at civilian targets, as happened on 21 January 2024 when one of the main markets in Donetsk was hit.
The Russian offensive in the Avdeevka area is affecting several key villages, such as Orlovka, Simyonovka and Berdychi, which are the scene of intense battles, with some of them partially under Russian control. The persistent pressure from Russian forces indicates their determination to consolidate their control in the area.
Protracted battles are a constant in the region, with the town of Pervomayskoe at the center of attention, where Russian forces have spent recent months gaining complete control as a strategic hub; similar clashes also continue near Nevelskoye, close to Donetsk, contributing to creating a situation of instability in various parts of the front.
Among the recent Russian conquests is the village of Pobyeda near Marynka, while the armed forces continue to attack and insist around Novomikhailovka showing a strategy of consolidating the positions acquired.
Significant progress has been recorded in the Zaporizhzhia region, near Rabotin, famous for last summer’s Ukrainian counteroffensive as the only major city taken by the Ukrainians. Russian forces in the region have rapidly conquered key positions, marking a dynamic change in territorial control, but the phases of the offensive also extend to other areas, such as Bakhmut, a city conquered last May by Vagener, around which the Russian soldiers continue to press in the direction of Chasov yar from two different directions, namely from the city of Bogdanovka and from the city of Klisciivka, demonstrating a determination to extend their control on all sides of the front.
The situation in the Karkov region and in the northern part of the Donetsk People’s Republic is equally tense: here the fighting is taking place in the direction of Liman and in the villages of Terni, with Russian forces trying to advance towards Kupiansk pressing from the cities of Synkovka and Tebayevka.
An operation by the special forces of the Ukrainian navy in the south-west of Crimea in Kerson also failed in the worst possible way, where 4 fast boats were identified by the Russian coastal defense forces and destroyed.
The operation was announced 4 hours in advance by the Ukrainian command, specifying the target city, namely Karkinit: this suggests that the real purpose of the initiative was essentially propaganda rather than practical.
In conclusion, the persistent determination of the Russian armed forces in trying to advance on all sides of the north-eastern front of Donbass, i.e. the area not crossed by the Dnieper river, maintains a constant state of tension in the region on the Ukrainian side; Russian advances are always very targeted and conducted with a few dozen soldiers at a time, in order to make it difficult for drones and satellites to detect them. Furthermore, they can count on greater support from artillery and aerial vehicles; in fact, in the area, in addition to the massive use of kamikaze drones, there is also a massive use of Russian FAB satellite-guided precision gliding bombs, which are dropped from aircraft in the territory Russians arrive to hit the Ukrainian warehouses and the storage sites in the second and third lines, to try to protect these structures the Ukrainians are trying to transfer anti-aircraft batteries, but at the moment these do not seem to solve the problem as they are themselves the subject of target. Last Friday the Russians destroyed an S300 launcher with Geran 2 drones near the town of Mykolaipillia, 8km west of Kostjantynivka.
At the moment the Ukrainian troops are unable to contain the Russian advance and are retreating almost along the entire front, and in many cases the fight against the Russian advance is maintained until the ammunition runs out and sadly with an evident very high cost of losses.
