There are currently more than 100,000 Russian military personnel on the border with Ukraine and troops are also stationed in Belarus. Europe and the United States do not trust it. In response to Russia’s troop build-up, NATO sent reinforcements to Eastern European member states last week.
Russian claim rejected
Russia’s main goal is: Ukraine must never become a NATO member, and NATO must withdraw troops from Eastern European member states. It is a sensitive point for Russia, because Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991. After that, Ukraine, much to Russia’s regret, sought more and more rapprochement with the West.
But Russia’s demand to permanently exclude Ukraine from NATO has been rejected. The military alliance has an open-door policy: new countries are allowed to sign up and NATO cannot exclude this in advance. A country like Russia cannot stop that.
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Joe Biden is already warning of an invasion of Ukraine in February. The United States and the United Kingdom err on the side of caution: embassy officials and their relatives be evacuated from Ukraine. The European Union (and therefore also the Netherlands) does not yet intend to bring back citizens.
In the meantime, the Dutch cabinet is working on emergency scenarios in the event of a gas shortage. Russia is an important gas supplier: what if the gas tap is suddenly turned off due to this conflict?
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In short, in the West, the worst is taken into account. A different tone is heard from Russia. “We do not want war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. But he also reiterated ‘that his country will not allow its interests or security to be harmed’.
According to Lavrov, the West is not very flexible: “If they don’t change their positions, neither will we. And in that case I see no room for compromise.”
Boiler pressure?
Indeed, a solution such as Russia envisioned does not seem to be forthcoming. Nevertheless, last week’s development appears to be fairly positive, says Rob de Wijk, an expert in international relations and security affairs. “Russia’s tough demands have been rejected by the US and NATO. Nevertheless, Russia says it will keep the door open for further consultations. I think that is a fairly positive response, although you do have to deal with daily rates in this crisis. be different every day.”
Russia correspondent Eva Hartog also thinks that the pressure is off. “It seems that Russia is buying time. A Putin spokesman says it will take time to look at NATO’s proposals. That suggests that Russia is choosing the path of diplomacy for the time being,” Hartog said.
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What may play a role is the Winter Olympics in China, a close ally of Russia. Hartog: “Russia may have been asked to keep quiet until after the Games, so as not to ruin the party. But we don’t know whether that is actually the reason.”
Putin’s agenda
A major invasion of Ukraine, De Wijk does not see happening at the moment. “Nobody knows what Russia is planning. How this will end depends on how the negotiations go. I think it is important that the West also listens to Russia.”
According to Hartog, there is not much the West can do now. “If Russia wants to invade Ukraine, they will. No matter what sanctions the West comes up with. Putin has his own agenda and he is carrying it through,” Hartog said.
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