Ukraine Set to Receive Long-Awaited Influx of U.S. Weapons to Counter Russian Advance, but Major Offensive Unlikely until 2025

U.S. Weapons Aid Will Help Ukraine Against Russia, but Major Offensive Unlikely Until 2025

Long-awaited U.S. Weapons will Enable Ukraine to Counter Russian Advances

A long-awaited influx of U.S. weapons will help Ukraine to blunt Russia’s advance in the coming months, Biden administration officials said after Congress passed a major aid package. However, the Biden administration officials also acknowledged that an acute shortage of troops and Russia’s firepower advantage means that Kiev won’t likely regain major offensive momentum until 2025 at the earliest.

Foreign Aid Bill Approval a Victory for President Biden

The approval of the foreign aid bill by lawmakers marks a victory for President Biden. The bill includes a significant $61 billion in aid to Ukraine in their ongoing fight against Russia’s invading forces.

New Weapons’ Impact on Ukraine’s Defensive Position

With the initial shipments of arms, including artillery shells, air defense missiles, and armored vehicles, about to reach Ukraine, U.S. officials have high hopes that the new weapons will buy time for Kiev to replenish its military ranks and strengthen its defense capabilities to counter an expected Russian offensive.

The Urgent Need for Assistance

The approval of the foreign aid package gives Ukraine a much-needed injection of hope. Amidst continued Russian attacks, Ukraine’s exhausted combat units have been outgunned 5 to 1 and have been forced to ration ammunition. Urgent pleas for air defense systems have been made, with Ukrainian officials blaming the shortage for Russia’s successes in attacking cities and power plants.

Political Challenges and Ukraine’s Defensive Strategy

While Ukraine’s forces have lost their early battlefield momentum, President Zelensky’s government has made efforts to defend vulnerable areas, keep commercial shipping lanes open, and threaten Russia’s stronghold. The Biden administration, citing Ukraine’s defensive achievements and the promise of new capabilities such as long-range missiles and fighter jets, frames 2024 as a primarily defensive year but expects opportunities to reclaim smaller areas of Russian-controlled territories.

The Challenge of Mobilizing More Troops

Ukraine’s biggest challenge is the mobilization of more troops. Recent steps such as the streamlining of conscription and lowering the age of eligibility for military service have been taken as Ukraine seeks to reclaim its fighting power. Efforts to encourage the return of military-aged men who have fled the country since Russia’s invasion have also been made. However, Ukraine’s mobilization efforts have been hampered by concerns such as combat tour timelines, low pay, and the welfare of the families of killed or wounded soldiers.

Meeting the Manpower and Mobilization Challenges

Ukraine’s success in regaining momentum and the ability to mount a major offensive in 2025 will be dependent on fixing the manpower and mobilization situation. The Biden administration has offered assistance to Ukraine, including arms and training programs. Smaller pockets of Russian-controlled areas remain in focus as possible opportunities.

Ukraine’s Future and NATO Membership

The Biden administration, while ruling out an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO during an upcoming summit, recognizes the importance of Ukraine’s future being firmly tied to Europe. Ukraine’s leading advocates in Congress are urging President Biden to consider offering a realistic path to NATO membership, once the country has met all the conditions and requirements of the alliance.

O’Grady reported from Kyiv.