Every morning, British intelligence publishes a brief report from the war in Ukraine.
Saturday’s edition deals with the news that came a couple of days ago, namely that the Wagner group no longer recruits from prisons. This was said by the head of the group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a statement on Thursday.
“Carnage”
The British believe this to be true, and think the reason is that the prisoners would rather spend their sentence in prison, rather than take the chance of a pardon during six months on the battlefield in Ukraine. Today’s fighting around Bakhmut, where the Wagner group has been active since last summer, is described by a Norwegian expert as “a bloodbath”.
– Data from the Russian Federal Penal Service suggests a drop in the recruitment rate for prisoners after December 2022. The news about the harsh realities of the Wagner service in Ukraine has probably leaked through to the inmates and reduced the number of volunteers, the British write on Saturday morning.
Read also: Fears carnage: – The machine gun must run hot
The British also believe the rivalry and power struggle between the traditional Russian military and the Wagner group is part of the reason why prison recruitment has now ended, adding:
– The regular Russian military has probably now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists who were called up during the partial mobilization, the British write.
Also read: ISW: The Kremlin has begun to lose faith in the Wagner leader
Now the Russians are at a crossroads, the British believe:
– The Russian leadership is now faced with the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces, scaling back its targets or carrying out a further form of mobilization, they conclude.
USA: Russia may have lost half of its tanks
Half of Russia’s heavy tanks may have been destroyed in battle or taken by the Ukrainians, says a Pentagon official.
It is Celeste Wallander, who is the secretary of state for international security affairs in the Ministry of Defence, who believes that the Russians have lost half of their tanks since the invasion last February.
Wallander did not give an exact figure for the number of Russian tanks lost.
She made her assessment as Ukraine prepares to receive hundreds of tanks from Western allies.
