Kristian Åtland at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment fears that the Ukraine conflict will expand geographically and in intensity and lead to a major war.
– Then we are talking about tens of thousands of killed and millions of refugees. I have to admit that this keeps me awake at night. This conflict has ripple effects far beyond the local. This could have a major impact on the security situation in Europe in the years to come, says senior researcher Kristian Åtland at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment to Khrono.
“At every crossroads where Russia has had the opportunity to de-escalate the situation, they have instead chosen to escalate it,” he adds.
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Åtland’s concern is supported by Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv. She is a professor of critical peace and conflict studies at UiT Norway’s Arctic University.
– I’m not lying. I am worried. Many, including me, did not think Putin would come up with such an aggressive intervention against Ukraine, she tells the newspaper.
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Gjørv does not believe that Russia will go further than Ukraine, but is pretty sure that there will be a long-term conflict.
Fear of bloodshed
Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense College believes that Russia must either establish a Moscow-friendly regime in Kyiv quickly – otherwise there could be a long war. FFI researcher Tor Bukkvoll warns against a bloodbath in Ukraine.
– It is the worst case scenario, it seems. It’s so massive. It is along the entire northern border and from the Crimea and from the south and Odesa, says Bukkvoll.
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– Now it has moved from being politics to being military. Then Putin simply has to fight the Ukrainian military, it is a huge bloodbath, says the FFI researcher.
Putin’s four goals
Lieutenant Colonel Heier has previously been among those who believed that the cost of a Russian invasion was so great that it was unlikely. Now it has become so costly not to attack that Vladimir Putin feels pressured to do so, Heier believes.
– Russia wants four things here: They want to keep the United States at arm’s length. They want to establish a buffer from Belarus, Ukraine and down to Georgia. They want to stop all future NATO enlargement in Europe. Through this, they also get to restore Russia’s status as a great power, Heier says to NTB.
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If they do not quickly establish a pro-Russia regime in Kyiv, however, they could end up in a quagmire as the US did in Iraq – and Russia itself in Afghanistan, Heier believes.
From a Western perspective, this will lead to a new divided Europe, a weakened international legal order and a much stronger and more united NATO, which in turn will be glued back into its own organization. It will of course scare Finland, Sweden and Georgia into the NATO fold, which could lead to American soldiers in far more countries than before, says Heier.
Big costs and a divided Europe
Heier points out that the war could come at a huge cost both for Europe and for Russia.
– Nevertheless, it has now become the case that it is considered more expensive for Russia not to do anything, Heier says.
Putin has come a long way in playing hard to try to pressure the West to make big concessions. He has not received that. Heier warns that the conflict could affect Europe in the long term and thus lead to a new divided continent.
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FFI researcher Bukkvoll says it looks like a full invasion of Ukraine is now a possible scenario.
– It has been warned against quagmire war, is it still realistic?
– Yes, I still think that is a realistic scenario. Putin has not said terribly much about the goal of the operation, but said that he does it to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, says Bukkvoll.
– This means that not only is there control over a few more areas he wants, he will change today’s Ukraine in its image, he adds.
Can be long lasting
– And the Ukrainians are ready to fight?
– They are already in full swing. Now that there is war, one can not take any news for granted, but I saw messages on a Ukrainian website that Ukrainian forces have already taken back a city in Luhansk province, the researcher says.
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He says Ukraine has no friends who can come to their aid with physical forces or weapons.
– The rescue from NATO does not come in the form of its own soldiers, but I expect that they will receive full intelligence from the Americans, and that means a lot. Then there is the question of whether this will last for years, then there has been talk that western countries can receive forces in neighboring countries, train them and send them back, says Bukkvoll.
Russia expert Geir Flikke does not rule out that the invasion of Ukraine would take place independently of diplomatic talks, and that Russia could occupy the country.
– In a way, this is the story of a foretold invasion. There have been signs that something has been going on for a long time. But it is surprising, unpleasant and cruel when it occurs, says Flikke to NRK.
(©NTB)
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