When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, it had a commonwealth of 45,000 nuclear weapons. Thousands of these were deployed in Ukraine.
But the new state did not want to be a nuclear power. The nuclear weapons were transferred – to Russia.
As a “reward”, Ukraine received a security agreement in 1994 – Budapest memoranda – where the parties guaranteed that Ukraine’s borders and independence would be respected. The great powers that signed the agreement were Britain, the United States and Russia.
Both the ongoing invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 are clear violations of the agreement by Russia.
– This agreement has been worthless since 2014, says Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug. He was the leader of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)’s observer corps inside the rebel-held Luhansk between 2016–2019.
– Will destroy us
– Could have been operational
Although thousands of nuclear warheads were located on Ukrainian soil when the Soviet Union collapsed, it was Moscow that had control of the nuclear keys needed to arm the weapons.
But Dalhaug believes it is likely that Ukraine could get around this problem.
– A great deal of Soviet military equipment was produced in Ukraine. Ukraine also had many of the best universities, and educated the best engineers. It would not be surprising if they had managed to keep these weapons operational, he says.
In recent days, several Ukrainian politicians have complained that the country “gave away” the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal 30 years ago.
SATAN 2: A videographer from Russian television on March 1, 2018 shows the new intercontinental missile RS-28 Sarmat (with the NATO name “Satan 2”). Russia today has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.
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Credibility
– Ukraine is the only country in history that has surrendered its nuclear arsenal, in exchange for guarantees from the United States, Great Britain and Russia. Where have these guarantees gone? Will be bombed and killed, said Member of Parliament Alexei Gonsharenko yesterday.
Arne Bård Dalhaug is not sure if it would have made any difference in the current situation if Ukraine had had nuclear weapons.
“I’m not sure what kind of credibility it would be to threaten the use of nuclear weapons against a neighboring country,” says Dalhaug.
Although Russia today has far fewer nuclear weapons than during the days of the Cold War, the country is ifølge Federation of American Scientists the world’s largest nuclear power. They currently have 5,977 nuclear weapons. The United States has 5428.
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