Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom: Redefining Alliances and Security in 2025
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The war in Ukraine has forced a reassessment of fundamental geopolitical concepts. Words like “freedom” and “sovereignty,” frequently enough diluted in international discourse,have taken on visceral meaning in the face of Russian aggression. In Ukraine, “freedom” isn’t a slogan; it’s the daily struggle for survival. “Sovereignty” isn’t an abstract idea; it’s the difference between self-determination and subjugation by Moscow.
Ukraine’s fight is not isolated. Its defense benefits neighboring countries and even Taiwan. Though, Ukraine’s success hinges on external support, notably from the United States. As 2025 approaches and peace negotiations loom, the nature of alliances and security must be redefined. What does it truly mean to be an “ally” in this new era? What constitutes a genuine “security order”? Olga Myrovych, CEO of the Lviv Media Forum, poignantly asks if peace will simply mean Ukraine “rest[ing] in peace.”
The war has also exposed the hollowness of certain political concepts. The “international rules-based order,” ofen invoked, has proven ineffective against Russia’s aggression. President Biden’s attempt to frame the conflict as a Cold War-style clash between “democracies” and “dictatorships” has fallen short, as many democracies remain detached. While ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union, speaks passionately about Ukraine as part of the “European family,” the EU’s security response has been limited. NATO’s collective defense pledge, historically reliant on American resolve, now appears less certain.
as Ukraine anticipates potential negotiations, its leaders are seeking concrete guarantees from its partners.With the fragility of concepts like “international order,” “Europe,” and even “NATO” exposed, securing real guarantees is paramount. The 1994 Budapest memorandum, where Ukraine relinquished its nuclear weapons in exchange for border security assurances from Russia, the US, and Britain, serves as a cautionary tale. The fear of broken promises lingers. Even a ceasefire wouldn’t eliminate the threat of future Russian aggression; Russia’s historical antagonism towards Ukraine remains a persistent concern. The ultimate guarantee, in a world of shifting alliances, is a well-armed Ukraine capable of resisting invasion.
Recently, in Kyiv, a gathering of European Parliament members, military intelligence officers, drone manufacturers, Ukrainian ministers, and arms manufacturers discussed bridging the gap between political rhetoric and the practical realities of military hardware. This event, hosted by supporters of the We Build Ukraine think tank, highlighted the urgent need to translate lofty ideals into tangible support for Ukraine’s defense.
Reforging Global Supply Chains: A New Era of industrial Warfare
The conflict in Ukraine has ignited a fundamental shift in global geopolitics, extending far beyond the battlefield. The war is forcing a dramatic reassessment of global supply chains, prompting nations to forge new economic alliances and prioritize secure, resilient networks. This new reality, characterized by what some are calling ”industrial warfare,” is reshaping the international landscape and demanding a radical rethink of conventional economic blocs.
concerns are mounting about the vulnerability of existing supply chains. as an example, Ukrainian drone manufacturers are grappling with the impact of Chinese sanctions on microchips, raising questions about the reliability of alternative suppliers, such as Taiwan. This tangible challenge underscores the urgent need for a more robust and diversified approach to securing essential resources.
The traditional notion of economic blocs is also undergoing a meaningful conversion.”It was a sad revelation for us when we realised the EU is not a true union when it comes to industrial production,” noted a Ukrainian expert. “All the countries compete with each other. That’s a peacetime logic.In war, you need to direct and enable mass industrial capacity. Change regulations to make production easier; incentivise business to invest long term; unite university research with learning from the frontlines.”
Ukraine is emerging as a potential linchpin in a new network of nations recognizing the shared threat posed by Russia. This emerging alliance, centered around northeastern Europe and perhaps including key partners from Asia and beyond, is built on a foundation of mutual existential interdependence. The focus is shifting away from outdated acronyms and politically fraught alliances towards a more pragmatic approach centered on secure supply chains and what’s being termed “friend-shoring.”
As this new industrial warfare becomes central, we will have many more stories about its shadow wars.
This paradigm shift necessitates a fundamental change in how nations approach industrial production and resource management. The implications for the United States are significant, requiring a reassessment of its own supply chain vulnerabilities and a proactive engagement in forging stronger alliances with like-minded nations.the future of global stability may well depend on the success of this ongoing transformation.
The implications for the U.S. are far-reaching. American businesses need to consider diversifying their supply chains,reducing reliance on potentially unstable regions,and investing in domestic manufacturing capabilities. Moreover, strengthening alliances with key partners, particularly in Europe and Asia, is crucial to ensuring a secure and resilient global economic order.
The Shadow War: How Global Supply Chains Fuel the Conflict in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine isn’t just a battlefield clash; it’s a complex struggle playing out across global supply chains. A new era of industrial warfare is emerging, one where access to seemingly mundane materials like chromium and gun cotton can significantly impact the outcome of the war. This intricate web of international trade and resource dependence offers both challenges and opportunities for those seeking to support Ukraine and counter Russia’s aggression.
Experts at the Center for European Policy Analysis emphasize the need for “coalitions of the willing, capable and threat aware” to effectively counter Russia’s military capabilities. This requires a multifaceted approach, targeting not just the battlefield, but also the intricate supply lines that sustain Russia’s war machine.
A recent report from the Open Source Center highlights Russia’s heavy reliance on howitzers in its offensive. However, the report reveals a critical vulnerability: the rapid degradation of thes howitzers without a consistent supply of high-quality chromium for barrel refurbishment. This chromium is sourced internationally, making it a prime target for targeted sanctions and export controls. Further complicating matters, Russia’s artillery propellant production depends on gun cotton from Central Asia.
A PBS investigative report by Simon Ostrovsky sheds light on mysterious explosions at a gun cotton warehouse in Uzbekistan. The circumstances surrounding these explosions remain unclear, raising questions about potential involvement from Ukraine, the United States, or even Russia itself, possibly retaliating against Uzbekistan for potential sales to Western powers supporting Ukraine. These incidents underscore the escalating shadow war unfolding alongside the main conflict.
The interconnectedness of freedoms and military production is a crucial element often overlooked. Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, eloquently articulates this connection: “Even though, indeed because, she is a human rights activist, she also advocates for Ukraine’s right to self-defence and to return fire inside Russia at the military bases that are being used to murder Ukrainian civilians. ‘International law’ is also an empty term if it can’t be defended literally.”
The implications of this new industrial warfare extend beyond the battlefield. The moral compromises,hidden acts of heroism,and clandestine operations involved will undoubtedly shape future narratives,influencing everything from espionage thrillers to the next generation of James Bond films. The complexities of this conflict will continue to unfold, demanding a nuanced understanding of the global supply chains that fuel it.
Peter Pomerantsev is the author of How to Win an Details War: The Propagandist who Outwitted Hitler.
The Future of Freedom: Ukraine and the Remaking of Global Security
The war in Ukraine has forced a reassessment of basic geopolitical concepts, forcing us to reexamine the meaning of “freedom” and “sovereignty.” In a world facing renewed aggression, understanding the complexities of the conflict and its implications for global security is crucial. World-Today News Senior Editor, Samantha Miller, spoke with Dr. Oksana Tkachenko, Director of the Center for Economic Strategy and Reform in Kyiv about the challenges facing Ukraine as it fights for its future and the wider ramifications for the international order.
Samantha Miller: Dr. Tkachenko, the war in Ukraine is frequently enough framed as a battle
between democracy and authoritarianism. But the conflict
has also exposed the limitations of existing international structures
and alliances.
Dr. Oksana Tkachenko: Absolutely. The “rules-based order” that has underpinned the
international system for decades has proven fragile in the
face of Russian aggression. While many countries
have rallied in support of Ukraine, the response has been
patchy and often driven by self-interest. This war has
highlighted the urgent need for a more robust and
coordinated global response to challenges to
international security.
Samantha Miller: Ukraine’s success hinges on external support,
particularly from the United States. As we look towards
2025 and potential peace negotiations, what does
“security” mean for Ukraine?
Dr. Oksana Tkachenko: Security for Ukraine cannot
simply be about a ceasefire or a return to the pre-war
status quo. It must involve concrete, legally binding
guarantees against future aggression. We’ve seen the
limitations of relying on verbal assurances, as
demonstrated by the Budapest Memorandum, were
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange
for security guarantees that were ultimately
unfulfilled. We need a multi-pronged approach
that includes:
Strengthened NATO presence in the region: This would
deter further Russian aggression and provide a
credible defense deterrent.
Enhanced military support: Ukraine needs continued access
to advanced weapons systems and training to ensure
it can effectively defend itself.
Economic assistance: Rebuilding Ukraine’s
infrastructure and economy will be crucial for
long-term stability and resilience.
Stronger international sanctions:
Continued pressure on Moscow through sanctions will
weaken its ability to wage war and force it to
reconsider its actions.
Samantha Miller: The war has also put a spotlight on the importance of
secure global supply chains. How has the conflict impacted Ukraine’s
economy, and what lessons can be learned?
Dr. Oksana Tkachenko: The war has had a devastating
impact on Ukraine’s economy,disrupting supply chains,
destroying infrastructure,and displacing millions of
people. the shortages of essential goods, like
microchips, have highlighted the vulnerability
of overly reliant global supply chains.
Samantha Miller: Businesses around the world are
reconsidering their exposure to risk and
exploring alternative sourcing options. What
opportunities and challenges do you see arising
from this shift?
Dr. Oksana Tkachenko: This presents both challenges and
opportunities for Ukraine. We are working to diversify
our economy and attract foreign investment in
sectors like technology, renewable energy, and
agriculture. However, we also need support in
rebuilding our infrastructure and creating a favorable
business environment.
This crisis has also highlighted Ukraine’s potential
as a key regional hub for “friend-shoring” –
relocating manufacturing and supply chains to
trusted allies.
By strengthening our partnerships with countries that share our
values, we can build a more resilient and
inclusive global economy.
Samantha Miller: Dr. Tkachenko,thank you for your
insights. The future of Ukraine remains uncertain, but your
work in advocating for its security and prosperity is invaluable.
Dr. Oksana Tkachenko: Thank you for having me.
The struggle for freedom in Ukraine is ultimately a
struggle for a more just and secure world order.
