Ukraine Launches Counter-Offensive in Zaporizhia and Potential Push towards Sea of Azov

Now that the Ukrainian counter-offensive seems to have really started, attacks reported by the Ukrainian army all around the front line. The most intense fighting appears to be in the south, in the Zaporizhia region. If Ukraine manages to push through to the Sea of ​​Azov, Kherson and the Crimea isolated from the rest of the territory occupied by Russia.

Ultra-nationalist military bloggers report heavy Ukrainian attacks in Zaporizhia and partial successes. Ukraine is said to have taken territory around Lobkove, although this has not been confirmed. The bulk of the artillery attacks would be concentrated in the direction between Orichiv and Tokmak. Tokmak is an important hub located some 40 kilometers from the front line.

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Also according to official Russian sources, there have been many Ukrainian attacks in Zaporizhia. The Russians claim to have turned it down, but that cannot be verified.

Ukraine says the epicenter of the fighting is in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, and is keeping a low profile about the offensive in the south. According to Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, the Russians are conducting defensive operations in the south. She does not reveal more about the situation there.

Russia claims that many Ukrainian tanks have gathered in the south. In any case, it is certain that German Leopard 2 tanks of the Ukrainian army are active near Orichiv, shown by images that through de Volkskrant have been verified.

The independent experts of think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also conclude that there are many Ukrainian attacks in Zaporizhia. They are partly repulsed, because the Russians have built up several lines of defense there. However, Ukraine is not using all the military resources it has, the ISW notes. The first attacks may have been intended as pinpricks to see how the Russians react.

According to the ISW, it is likely that Russia has its best troops stationed in the south. That would partly explain why Ukrainian attacks there are now successfully repelled. In other parts of the country, Russian defensive capabilities could be less.

Joram Bolle

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