The surprise incursion of the Ukrainian army into Russian territory, which managed to convey a certain tactical optimism after months of suffering on an increasingly weakened front, has already lasted more than two weeks with signs of slowing down and without apparently achieving a clear strategic objective. The bold movement penetrated up to 30 kilometers into the Kursk region in the first few days with an impressive demonstration of logistical capacity, intelligence resources and use of the element of surprise. The Ukrainian army came to control an area of about a thousand square kilometers. In the short term, it achieved several objectives. The first, not the least, in effect: to embarrass Vladimir Putin, visibly irritated by his response in the first few days and who has promised a strong response. In practice, it demonstrated the weakness of the Russian army in that area and scored a much-needed moral rearmament to change a depressing dynamic of mere resistance to the invader’s punishment for more than two years.
Two weeks later, enthusiasm is giving way to uncertainty about the long-term benefits of this incursion, the first invasion of Russian territory since 1941. Despite Putin’s promises of retaliation, the Russian military is in no hurry to counter the invasion, much less to expel the Ukrainians from the province, which is home to a nuclear power plant, as soon as possible. The Ukrainian military was even able to open a second front last week on the border town of Tiotkino. The most obvious strategic objective of the operation was to divert resources to that area that the Russian military is concentrating on an intense punishment on the southwestern front along the border of Donetsk province. That gamble has not materialized. On the contrary, the Russian offensive on the towns near the Dnieper River has intensified. Putin’s forces are harassing the town of Pokrovsk, a town of about 50,000 inhabitants with strategic value as a logistics center for the front, where evacuations of civilians have begun.
The Ukrainian deft maneuver has had the main effect of changing the perception of the dynamics of the war, in which Russia and Kiev’s own allies saw a very negative picture in a war of attrition that favors Moscow because it has more resources. Ukrainian propaganda has shown videos of Russian soldiers surrendering throughout the Kursk incursion. In the long term, the only objective cannot be to invade Russia, but to obtain territory and prisoners to exchange for current losses. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered this weekend to host a possible international conference. But the terms of that table are even more uncertain than the future of the troops in Kursk. Putin can even wait for a change of political scenario in the United States in November. Ukraine cannot.
