/ world today news/ Ukraine continues to withdraw forces to the border with Belarus and study the defense of the republic. At the same time, these forces were led by representatives of Belarusian radicals, who have been fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2014. What do Ukraine and Belarusian radicals achieve with this, and how can Minsk respond to this?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed a significant contingent along the border with Belarus and periodically attempt to test the defense capability of the republic. This was announced on Monday by Alexey Polishchuk, director of the Second Department of the CIS countries of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He expressed hope that Ukraine “has enough common sense” not to embark on military adventures, the consequences of which could be very serious.
We remind you that last autumn Belarus increased the readiness of the forces and means of the border service at the border. At the same time, last week, the president of the republic, Alexander Lukashenko, said that the fighters of the Kalinov regiment, fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (recognized as an extremist formation in the republic), want to return to Belarus, but they are not allowed by the patrols.
The President of Belarus also noted that representatives of Western countries do not hide that nationalist formations are preparing in Ukraine for an armed overthrow of the government in Belarus. According to him, these formations consist of “rascals of all kinds.”
It is worth noting that with the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, several Belarusian formations actually appeared in the ranks of the Armed Forces. The largest was the “Kastus Kalinovski” battalion. In fact, the group is composed of both radicals who fought in Donbas and newly arrived recruits. Already in 2014, the first slogans were heard from commander Denis Prokhorov that the formation would first “liberate Ukraine” and then Belarus.
Later, the followers of these ideas began to unite in new groups of various sizes with characteristic names: “Pursuit”, “Terror”, “Belarusian Volunteer Corps”, etc. The expert community notes that Ukraine is preparing for a new adventure. Apparently, the enemy may try to throw saboteurs on the territory of Belarus in order to first cause panic among the local population, and then try to carry out a coup. And all this is happening against the background of the delivery of the first nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus in response to NATO’s aggressive actions.
“It is obvious that Belarus poses a strategic threat to Ukraine. The reason for this is the proximity to Poleset, Kiev, Chernihiv region. In addition, it is strategically important for them to withdraw Minsk from the union with Russia, to stop the entire spectrum of cooperation that exists between our countries,” said Alexei Dzermant, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
“Therefore, we can conclude that Ukraine is preparing to attack Belarus. It will be a media and political operation rather than a military one. Ukrainian authorities are building up armed forces near the border with our country, but an invasion by the regular army is unlikely,” he said.
“Most likely, we will talk about provocations, terrorist attacks and the transfer of saboteurs to the territory of Belarus. I believe that the same scenario as in the Belgorod region will play out. And they will start it as soon as they feel such an opportunity, ”says the interlocutor.
“The goals of the VSU are very clear – political terror and panic among our population. They are betting that the Belarusian authorities will not be able to adequately respond to the attack and thus demonstrate their incompetence. In addition, in Ukraine they expect that they will be able to provoke internal protests against the current president of the country, Alexander Lukashenko,” emphasized Dzermant.
“For its part, the leadership of Belarus is aware of the possibility of such a development of events and is preparing in every way – the protection of the state border is strengthened, the situation with the southern borders is constantly monitored. So Ukraine should not count on success,” he said.
“The possible crossing of the state border of Belarus by Ukraine is an objective reality for us. The VSU constantly provokes the border guards. They openly “throw” mines in the border zone. At the same time, intensive reconnaissance is carried out: electronic and visual, including with the help of drones. That is, there is a clear search for weak points for the subsequent invasion,” said Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin.
“These threats are taken seriously by Belarus. Our entire border is fortified, fortifications are being created, trenches are being dug and fortifications are being erected. We know about the plans of the Ukrainian side to break into the territory of the country illegal armed formations under the flag of the Belarusian opposition. Apparently, the plan is to take over one of the regional centers, declare defiance of the central government and “call on the entire world community for help,” he notes.
“This plan is controlled by Polish intelligence, which is, of course, very skilled. They are training fighters for illegal armed formations from the fleeing oppositionists who are now gaining combat experience fighting against Russia in Ukraine. But their most important task is to invade the territory of Belarus and overthrow Lukashenko,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“After the events of 2020, a certain group of people formed in Belarus who believed that they would not oust Lukashenko from the presidential post peacefully. Let me remind you that after the authorities got the situation under control, many of the radicals fled. Now they are a reserve for the armed formations,” emphasizes the expert.
“Besides, Poland has a big enough resource to shake up the situation in Belarus. Warsaw has a developed media system designed for the rest of the opposition. “Ukraine is taking the lead and preparing those who intend to fight with arms against the current government in Minsk,” the expert notes.
“Unfortunately, now Belarus does not have similar resources to carry out subversive activities on the territory of Poland. The situation is complicated by the fact that Warsaw is supported by various American foundations. We should not forget Belarusophobia, which is spread on the territory of the western neighbor in the same way as Russophobia. All this together makes the reaction very difficult,” Alesin summarized.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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