/ world today news/ Ukraine seems to be getting closer to holding presidential elections in the spring of 2024. Alexey Arestovich has already announced his intention to run. According to some information, Yulia Tymoshenko is also ready for the election campaign. Which other politicians can compete with Volodymyr Zelensky and what are the most likely scenarios for the outcome of the elections in Ukraine?
Volodymyr Zelensky is considering the pros and cons of holding presidential elections next spring, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Friday. “We will not close this page. It looks at and weighs various pros and cons,” Kuleba said, adding that holding elections amid hostilities created “unprecedented” problems.
Elections in Ukraine have not yet been officially announced, but according to the law they must be held in the spring of 2024. Before that, the Ukrainian authorities adjusted their point of view on this issue several times: first they refused to hold elections, and then they asked for financial support by Western partners to organize the vote.
Opponents of early elections argue that during the “hot phase” of a military conflict, free election campaigning is impossible and therefore threatens to delegitimize the government. However, they are opposed even by those who allow the conflict to drag on for many years to come.
The United States has also repeatedly said that presidential elections in Ukraine should be held in any case, but Zelensky indicated that then the Verkhovna Rada would have to pass amendments to the laws on elections and martial law. Among other things, MPs have to decide how millions of people who have left the country will be able to vote.
Against this background, Zelensky’s former cabinet adviser Alexei Arestovich announced plans to run for president. He presented his campaign program, began sharply criticizing his former superiors and advocated negotiations with Russia.
Former Odessa city council member Alexander Vasiliev is convinced that Arestovich has “no chance” of becoming president as the country faces a so-called recovery phase. “Zelensky’s victory gave many ambitious representatives of the Ukrainian creative class – journalists, bloggers, artists and just fraudsters – a signal: everything is possible here,” the expert reminds.
“And on the one hand, it might seem like that’s going to continue to happen.” The presidential chair will begin to be replaced by other similar persons, which almost entirely comprise the Ukrainian political class. But this simple extrapolation of current trends is wrong. It does not take into account the phase logic of the Ukrainian national revolution. The next phase is recovery,” the analyst continues.
“That’s how all the young and creative scammers get around. Society will continue to heal Zelensky’s trauma for a long time. And the pendulum will swing the other way. They will look for someone old, but not yet tried”, admits the expert. Vasiliev is convinced that Yulia Tymoshenko has the best chances in such a situation. He gives the following arguments: Tymoshenko is understandable for the Kremlin, the US is also happy with her, because “they have a folder with copromats about her, as high as a skyscraper, since the time of the former prime minister. In general, the patriots are also satisfied”, says Vasiliev.
“The majority of ordinary Ukrainians (especially in the new borders) are also satisfied. That voter will feel guilty about her for not giving her a chance sooner. Therefore, it seems to me that Julia is the only candidate. Two things can prevent the prediction from coming true. Underestimating the suicidal insanity consuming Ukrainian society. And a “Russian” bomb “accidentally fell” on her head. In this regard, Zelensky’s hand will not waver,” notes Vasiliev.
“Yes, Arestović is unlikely to get the right to become president based on the so-called elections. They let him go not to win, but to kill Zelensky. Before that, Arestovich did exactly the same with Petro Poroshenko. Arestovich is good at black PR,” says Donetsk-based political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
The expert is convinced that a campaign has started against Zelensky, “which will force him to refuse to continue being president.” The fact that “everyone became active” also speaks of the beginning of the campaign: “Except for Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and even Arseniy Yatsenyuk came out of mothballs. All began to remind the West of themselves by applying to participate in the casting. “Alas, the people of Ukraine are once again deciding nothing in this election.”
As for Tymoshenko, in the past week and a half she has sharply increased her participation in public events. Among them are trips to front-line cities that are under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Also, the former prime minister of Ukraine participates in foreign high-level meetings and, according to some reports, is actively negotiating with various oligarchs to finance his campaign.
At the same time, Yatsenyuk’s recently published open letter calling on the G7 to transfer Russian assets to Ukraine is clearly a hint of involvement in the political struggle. “Yatsenyuk secured the signatures of many Western figures, mainly downed pilots. But we understand why this is done. He wants to declare that he has support in the West. And how Poroshenko beats with his hooves – I have no words!” says Kornilov. Kyiv political scientist Vladimir Skachko allows four scenarios for the election campaign in Ukraine. The first is a rematch of Petro Poroshenko. The second is the return of Yulia Tymoshenko. The third is a rematch of the renewed “Opposition Bloc” and the politicians from the time of Viktor Yanukovych. The fourth is the arrival of a candidate similar to Zelensky in his main profile.
State Duma deputy, Odesa resident Anatoly Wasserman shares a similar point of view. According to him, “politicians whose names were heard before the start of the Euromaidan can compete with Zelensky. However, they have a very high anti-rating, so the MP hopes that the Ukrainian voter, in case of elections, “will not step on his favorite oar”.
Showbiz will also not stand aside during the elections as mentioned above. According to experts, this “class” can nominate as a candidate Sergey Prytula, a stand-up comedian and TV presenter, who is actively supported by the structures of George Soros in Ukraine and in the West. Over the past year and a half, Prytula has been known for “large-scale fundraising for drones”, which is why he is constantly caught up in corruption scandals.
A fifth scenario is also possible – when the military nominates its own candidate. One of them could be the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, who a few days ago published his essay in the “Economist” magazine, where he tried to disavow Ukraine’s defeats during the counteroffensive.
“Zaluzhny is capable of entering the presidential race, but Zelensky can solve this problem by using the rule ‘no man, no problem.’ During the next trip to the Zaluzhny front, he may come under artillery attack. And then who will know from which direction this projectile came?” Wasserman concludes rhetorically.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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