Ukraine is also holding its breath for the outcome of the American presidential elections

• Paulus Houthuijs

  Text editor online

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? In Ukraine, the American presidential elections are watched with almost more enthusiasm than in the USA itself. The policies of the new president will be crucial for the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Regardless of who wins the election, from Ukraine’s perspective the prospects are bleak. The US is by far the most important military alliance, but experts expect that the peak of billions of aid from Washington has been reached.

Even if Harris, who is seen as favorable to Ukraine, wins, political disagreements in Congress will make it difficult to get new approval for major aid packages. And that’s not to mention the possibility that Republicans will gain more influence or even prevail. Part of the party sees Ukraine as a bottomless pit and they believe that the money that goes there should be better spent.

According to defense analyst Davis Ellison (HCSS think tank), less American aid may come for other reasons. “The US cannot do everything at once.” Domestic headaches, helping Israel in the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the geopolitical battle against China: Washington has to make choices.

“The potential impact of a reduction in aid and the obstacles on the Eastern Front will have a significant impact on the morale of Ukraine,” continued analyst Ellison. This year, it is said that several thousand soldiers. The Prosecutor General of Ukraine has launched a reported 51,000 criminal cases for desertion through September. the British newspaper The Times based on leaked data.

The Ukrainian army is growing slowly pushed back from the lands he has occupied in Russia. The Russian army is also moving forward regularly in the Donbas. In addition, the US and South Korea reported this week 3000 North Korean soldiers were transferred to Russia to fight with the Russians. Russia produces about 3 million artillery shells a year, compared to less than 2 million by NATO, an official said recently to CNN.

But the perseverance of the Ukrainians should not be underestimated, says Clingendael researcher Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld. “The determination on the front lines is greater than we think here. ” Ukraine continues to receive weapons and financial aid from the West.

The European Parliament agreed this week a loan of 35 billion euros to Ukraine with the interest from frozen Russian funds as collateral. But Soldatiuk admits that US financial and military support is ultimately necessary. “Washington is also the most important partner for security guarantees in negotiations.”

Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance has said a peace deal would require “major territorial concessions with Ukraine”. Trump, on the other hand, has openly said that Putin’s requests for peace cannot be accepted, that is, Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and surrender four regions.

“Trump’s approach is to be unprepared,” said defense expert Ellison. “He will choose what is best for him at the time.” According to Soldatiuk, the Ukrainian government has a pragmatic attitude: “Trump is seen as someone who can at least make a decision quickly. And if it gives him political benefits, he can also make a decision in favor of Kyiv.”

“There is not much information about what Harris wants with Ukraine, because she has not made clear statements about it,” said Soldatiuk. According to her, this is a political decision, so that the Democratic candidate will not make promises that she doesn’t want or can’t keep him in the end.

In the end, the question is how much freedom the new leader will have in the White House. A president can only implement plans if his or her party has a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, which together make up Congress.

On November 5, a third of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be redistributed. As with the race for the White House, polls indicate a close battle for Congress.