September 12, 08:37
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Ukrainian tanks on the front line (Photo: ZSU General Staff)
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Such direct and unambiguous assessments are given in its new summary on September 11, the American Institute for the Study of War.
His analysts say so new success of Ukraine “was the result of skilful planning and implementation of the campaign, which included efforts to make the most of Western weapon systems such as HIMARS. “However, although Western weapons systems were necessary, their presence alone would not have been sufficient to ensure the success of the Ukrainian military. a carefully planned and well-executed campaign in which Ukraine managed to mislead the Russian army and draw more attention to the counter-offensive in the Kherson region Well-thought-out attacks on Russian land lines also played an important role. (GLOC) in both Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
Ukraine’s liberation of Izyum ended Russia’s prospects of achieving its stated goals in the Donetsk region, ISW experts are convinced. They recall that after the retreat from Kiev, it was the conquest of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that the Russian Federation set the main goal. To this end, the Russian campaign focused on an axial advance from Izyum through Severodonetsk to the Donetsk area. The attacks aimed at capturing Severodonetsk, Lysichansk, Slavyansk, Bakhmut and Kramatorsk, and then at the exit to the western borders of the Donetsk region. However, after the capture of Severodonetsk on June 24 and Lisichansk on July 3 – after a long and extremely costly campaign for the Russian army – the invaders were no longer able to capture large settlements and significant territory. However, while maintaining positions in the Izyum region until recently, the Russians nevertheless threatened the Ukrainian defenders of Slovyansk and kept the opportunity to return to the attack in the northern sectors of this axis.
Now the loss of Izyum jeopardizes the original plan of the Russian campaign at this stage of the war and ensures that the Russian Federation cannot achieve a breakthrough in Bakhmut or the Donetsk region (if such progress occurs at all). Bakhmut’s capture is also unlikely, ISW experts say. In their opinion, now Russian offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut and in the Donetsk region “they have lost all real operational value for Moscow and are simply squandering some of the extremely limited combat power that Russia retains ”.
However there is no reason to believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive announced in the Kherson region was just a trick. Ukrainian forces carried out attacks and made gains at several important points on the west bank of the Dnieper. Furthermore, Ukraine has deployed considerable combat power in this area and concentrated a significant portion of Western long-range precision systems – this was not done just to hijack Russian forces in the area.
This means that against the background of the pressure of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kherson region, combined with a rapid counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, the Russian army was “faced with the terrible dilemma of time and space, ISW analysts say so. Russia probably lacks the reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defense line along the Oskol River. Common sense would require invaders to withdraw forces from other sectors of the front to establish defensive lines east of this river and then try to keep the Lugansk region border or line as close to it as possible. However, Russian troops in the Bakhmut and Donetsk area continue offensive operations, ISW experts are surprised, “as if they did not suspect” that they are threatening their forces in the Luhansk region. “Russian President Vladimir Putin risks making a common but deadly mistakedelaying too much the order to send reinforcements towards Luhansk, thus risking [провалить] “defense” of Kherson or offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk – but at the same time without withdrawing troops in time to [необходимые] positions of “protection” against the Ukrainian attacks in progress in the Lugansk region ”. The efforts of the UAF seem to aim to put Putin in such a dilemma and “benefit from almost every decision he makes,” ISW analysts conclude.
On the other hand, they point out the current counter-offensive will not yet end the war. The UAF’s swift campaign in northeastern Ukraine will eventually end, with the Russians forming a new line of defense and perhaps even launching local counterattacks. To complete the liberation of its territory, Ukraine will have to carry out other counter-offensive operations, perhaps even different ones. “The war will probably continue in 2023”, provides for ISW.
However “Ukraine has turned the tide of this war in its favor “, the institute’s experts say. According to them, it is now likely that the armed forces of Ukraine are increasingly so “it will dictate the place and nature of great hostilities “, while Russia will do so more and more “inadequately respond to Ukraine’s growing physical and psychological pressure in subsequent military campaigns unless Moscow finds a way to take the lead. “
Meanwhile The counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region has already affected the Kremlin’s relations with the Russian defense ministryfurther alienating Putin from the top military command. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin has postponed all his meetings with the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry and representatives of the Russian defense industry in Sochi – “a strange decision in the context of the military-operational and defense crisis.” industrial that Russia is facing, “notes the Institute for the Study of War. Even the defeat of Russia in the battle for the Kharkov region “it will only increase public criticism of Sergei Shoigu and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which could lead to personnel changes ”.
Other conclusions from ISW analysts in the last day:
- Russian military bloggers refer to the Oskol River, which flows along the line from Kupyansk to Izyum, as a new front line following the withdrawal of Russian troops from positions in the eastern part of the Kharkiv region;
- Ukrainian forces advanced to Volchansk and Veliky Burluk, south of the international border;
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to wage positional battles and target Russian military, rear and transport targets along the Southern Front;
- Russian forces carried out limited ground attacks around Avdiivka and Bakhmut;
- Russian authorities continue to seek combat forces from various external sources to support their operations in Ukraine in an effort to compensate for losses “volunteers “;
- the success of the UAF’s new counter-offensive probably contributed to Russia’s announcement that referendums on annexation would be postponed indefinitely.
Russia’s war against Ukraine: a map of hostilities
Fights and offensives in the Kharkiv region (Balakleya, Kupyansk, Izyum area: map of hostilities
Fights and offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in southern Ukraine: map of hostilities (Cherson region)
Fights in the Donbass: map
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