Analysts noted that President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov recently made simultaneous statements about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counterattack in the near future.
At the same time, the report points out the importance of the defense of Bakhmut. The ISW adheres to the assessment that Ukraine’s decision to defend the city is a strategically justified attempt to squeeze Russian troops in a separate sector of the front and break them.
However, according to Zelensky, the Ukrainians will continue to defend Bakhmut, but “not at any cost.”
After all, as Fyodor Venislavsky, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, said, Russia has thrown “all combat-ready units into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and also partially into the Zaporozhye region.”
Thus, the parliamentarian confirmed that Moscow does not have large unused combat-ready reserves that could be deployed and change the course of operations.
“These data are consistent with the ISW assessment that Ukraine has the potential to restart the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely support from the West,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
Main conclusions:
- US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20 ahead of the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reaffirming the United States’ continued commitment to supporting Ukraine in its efforts to liberate its territory.
- Ukrainian officials continue to react to statements by unnamed US defense officials about the pace and prospects of the war approaching the anniversary.
- The Russian Defense Ministry announced the formal integration of “DNR” and “LNR” fighters into the Russian armed forces on February 19 in response to growing criticism over reports of a change in command in puppet units.
- The decision to reorganize the militias against the backdrop of an ongoing offensive likely indicates that the Russian MoD does not understand the scale of the challenges associated with integrating irregulars into a professional army during intense hostilities.
- The restructuring of puppet armed formations shows that the Russian military command is trying to implement all the desired reforms, while the Russian Defense Ministry enjoys the favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- Russian military commanders have likely denied Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin access to artillery shells and heavy weapons as part of efforts to professionalize the Russian military.
- Prigozhin may have distorted information about the devastating impact of the lack of artillery ammunition for the “Wagnerites” in order to mask his true frustration with the inability of the PIK to have and control their own artillery systems.
- The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, was likely trying to assuage Prigozhin’s possible anger over Kadyrov’s likely refusal to join Prigozhin’s information campaign against the Russian Defense Ministry.
- US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the US government is concerned that China might consider providing lethal assistance to Russia.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
- The invaders also continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetskaya area and in the west of the Donetsk region.
- Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian troops are continuing to militarize the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
In addition, they reported that Russian troops may be trying to repair the air defense systems deployed in Ukraine. - The occupiers use the “anti-terrorist” commission to justify the seizure and nationalization of assets in the occupied Crimea for economic and military benefits.
