A wave of tanks for Ukraine
Rumors have been swirling for some time that Russia might have prepared enough mobilized troops to carry out a new massive attack wave for Ukraine. In order to counter such a potential attack, Ukraine has been asking the West for some time to provide it with modern heavy armored vehicles.
For months, the West has refused to fulfill this request, but suddenly something has changed, a competition has started between the great powers to see who will deliver the armaments faster and more – they have decided to do it both In Franceboth USA and Germany.
“It seems to me that a wave of tanks is brewing. The only question is how quickly this will all develop.
Because the stimulus came from the USA, the first promise about armored vehicles, then there is the answer of Germany, France, Great Britain is also trying to influence the negotiations with its serious promise of tanks, but we won’t know anything concrete before January 20, when there will be a meeting of the big donor countries in Germany, when really it will be necessary to show what will be given to Ukraine next,” explained Berziņa.
So it is clear that tanks and armored vehicles will be supplied to Ukraine, but the question of how extensive this support will be is still unclear.
“The impulse to slow ourselves down, to limit what capabilities are given to Ukraine, it’s starting to end. It will benefit Ukraine, of course. What’s interesting about this whole process is that it’s not about one country, but how countries will come together to promise, would procure and also arm, repair and maintain the new weapon systems,” Bērziņa assessed.
She pointed out that there is a lot of talk about the delivery of German “Leopard” tanks, but it is not clear whether the tanks could be delivered by Germany itself, or whether Germany, as a manufacturing country, will give permission to purchase them, for example, to Poland, in order to pass them on to Ukraine. Poland has long emphasized the desire transfer “Leopard” tanks to Ukraine.
Putin’s image in the eyes of China is crumbling
Evaluating Russia’s capabilities for massive attacks, Bērziņa admitted that, at least from the point of view of foreign policy, Russia is clearly becoming weaker and weaker – oil prices continue to fall, and at the same time, China is increasingly skeptical of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his credibility.
“At the beginning of last year, it seemed that China had allowed Russia to invade Ukraine. Now we hear more and more that Putin to President Xi of China [Dzjiņpinam] has not told the truth about what to expect in Ukraine. And in a way, China has sunk in, because it wouldn’t be nice to break the agreement, but whether this conflict has benefited China – not really,” Bērziņa assessed.
The only thing that China has gained from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the opportunity to buy Russian oil and gas resources for relatively cheap money, but it does not want anything more from Russia.
“China benefits only from the fact that it can now get from Russia whatever it wants in terms of natural resources – to use Russia in a sense as an underdeveloped country from which raw resources can be extracted.
Otherwise, maybe China has no interest in geopolitically entangling with Russia,” said the security expert.
It is not clear how the relations between these countries will develop in the future, but Bērziņa assessed that they are unlikely to become closer.
“In any case, who does this harm? Russia. Because it looks like China will continue to use Russia for its own economic interests, and Russia will have to put up with that, because what other choices does it have now? If Russia wants to resume diplomatic relations with European powers, with the USA, with Japan, with Australia, it should make concessions in Ukraine,” Berziņa explained.
“Russia has fewer geopolitical friends left, and suddenly the world around Russia begins to narrow, because everyone wants oil from Russia, everyone wants gas, but no one wants to go deeper, further.
Russia’s great goal of gaining global power and influence actually looks like it could fail,” she assessed.
Disputes between Turkey and Sweden
Meanwhile, in Europe, there is more and more talk about when Turkey will stop resisting the desire of Sweden and Finland to join NATO. The Marshall Fund researcher estimated that it will not be so soon.
“I think there are serious, fundamental problems between Turkey and Sweden. There is an ethnic minority group in Turkey, the Kurds. The Kurds have their own political party, but also a terrorist group that has carried out terrorist attacks in Turkey. There are many Kurds who have sought political asylum. in the Nordic countries, especially in Sweden,” Bērziņa explained.
“Turkey believes that certain individuals who have already been granted or are currently being considered for political asylum in Sweden are linked to terrorist purposes or linked to the coup attempt against Erdogan [Turcijas prezidentu]which happened several years ago,” she stated.
Turkey wants Sweden to extradite these people, if they want Turkey’s support to join NATO, but the Swedish government thinks it can’t interfere in court proceedings, that the government can’t decide who does or doesn’t deserve asylum, that’s a matter for the courts.
“Questions about changing legislation have already been addressed. Turkey has demanded that Finland and Sweden change their legislation in such a way that it takes the threat of terrorism more seriously. This is already being done, but the issue is about specific individuals who already have court cases in Sweden and Finland, but more so in Sweden,” explained Bērziņa.
“No matter how much pressure there is from Turkey, the Swedish government insists that it is not capable of interfering in court cases, but Turkey does not like this answer.
I doubt that we will have resolved this issue before the Turkish elections in the summer, because politically it is advantageous for President Erdogan to continue to put pressure on the northern countries precisely on this Kurdish issue, because in domestic politics it shows him as a strong, aggressive, capable president, and that’s it. which his constituents like. This position is very popularly supported,” she explained.
