/ world today news/ Kyiv uses fictitious pretexts to fill the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In Ukraine, they allow the opening of a second front, which will lead to increased mobilization. According to the Rada, such a step will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to form at least eight brigades and deploy them along the border with Belarus. What are the reasons for such assumptions and is there mobilization potential in Ukraine to solve such problems?
On Monday, a member of the Verkhovna Rada’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee, Davyd Arahamia, said that Ukraine may increase mobilization due to the deployment of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons (TWW) in Belarus. According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will need “at least eight more brigades” to control such a long front line.
“If they are really serious about this, I think we will face the real challenge of opening a second front.” This is approximately, I think, more than a thousand kilometers of potential front with Belarus, “said the leader of the Servant of the People party in the Rada.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. “We already helped the Belarusians – we re-equipped the planes, 10 planes are ready to use nuclear weapons, we handed over the Iskander. From April 3, we will begin training crews and building a nuclear weapons storage facility. We are not transferring our tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, but we will deploy them and train the military like the United States in Europe,” he said.
Putin noted that the weapons would be deployed without violating relevant international obligations. According to the president, the reason for this step is Britain’s statement about the supply of depleted uranium ammunition to the Armed Forces, which creates new risks in Eastern Europe.
Thus, according to experts, the Ukrainian authorities have dragged the country into a situation where London pumps the Air Force with uranium projectiles, and Russia, taking into account national security problems, is forced to respond by moving tactical nuclear weapons closer to the borders of NATO . But instead of following the path of de-escalation, the same David Arahamia announces new waves of mobilization in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“Arakhamia is actually using the scarecrow of the nuclear threat to justify mobilization again,” said Rodion Miroshnik, a former representative of the LPR in Russia. “But this is a total fraud. The Ukrainian authorities simply use any occasion to intimidate people. How will eight mobilized brigades allow the VSU to respond to the potential use of a tactical nuclear weapon?” the interlocutor asks.
“As for the potential for mobilization, it’s certainly there. Not to mention the mobilized, motivated and fit ones, they have long since ended. In fact, there are only those who can be used as cannon fodder”, he is convinced.
“It seems to me that in the near future Ukraine will use more and more “inventive” methods to attract its citizens to the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In addition to stepping up raids and sweep operations, law enforcement agencies will receive additional powers and citizen databases for recruitment,” Miroshnik said.
“I think the purpose of Arahamiya’s statements is to increase the degree of political escalation in Europe. The Ukrainian authorities are trying to show that the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus will further heat up the situation in the war zone. Moreover, it is a sacred duty to blame Russia for everything,” said Larisa Shesler, head of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine.
“It is clear that this is done in concert with allies in Europe and America, who clearly demonstrate a policy of double standards. They call the deployment of Russian missiles in Belarus unthinkable, while the US is quietly doing the same in other European countries,” the interlocutor added.
The experts also recalled that the waves of mobilization in Ukraine do not stop. First of all, the inhabitants of large Russian-speaking cities and the inhabitants of the wasteland of Western Ukraine fall under the blows. On the other hand, the mobilization has practically not affected Kyiv, where the authorities are trying to create a positive picture.
Against this background, the situation of the military in Ukraine is deteriorating not only as a result of the hostilities, but also for economic reasons. The Ukrainian budget is not able to support the Armed Forces and, moreover, to support social guarantees and benefits for military personnel. Last week, this problem was recognized in the Verkhovna Rada. There, instead of pensions, they proposed to establish scholarships for veterans, to be paid for 2-3 years.
However, Ukraine still has a significant mobilization resource and is fully capable of creating eight brigades (from 28,000 to 40,000 men). “The country is big, leaving it for men is practically closed, not counting the way with bribes. For example, in one of the villages of Odesa region, an 80-year-old man was recently served with a summons. They told him that he looks good and will work in the warehouse”, says political scientist and economist Ivan Lisan.
Therefore, it is not necessary to count on an imminent exhaustion of Ukraine’s mobilization potential. “Another thing is that living people cannot fight with tactical nuclear weapons,” the expert noted. “Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities will probably use this pretext to legalize the endless mobilization,” he adds.
“Recruitment is not a problem. They will be caught. Military commissars approach this process as a competition, they are entitled to bonuses for this. But where will they get the equipment for eight new brigades is the question,” the interlocutor also said.
“If you look at the roads near Artyomovsk, we will see a large number of broken civilian vehicles on the dirt roads – they are used because of the shortage of armored vehicles. Perhaps the NATO countries will take care of this, but it will not be possible to quickly equip eight brigades. Most likely, the mobilized will be used in other sections of the front,” Lisan admits.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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