Ukraine does not have to pay for Western support with miracles – 2024-02-24 17:32:30

Two years ago, Russian tanks rolled across the border into Ukraine. No one in the West believed that Ukraine would survive even a month. In Russia, preparations were made to conquer Kiev in just days.

It was the other way around.

Ukraine’s success, especially in breaking the siege of Kiev, threw the West’s expectations to the other extreme. There was a reminder of over-optimism in low-key speeches, which were heard last autumn after the less successful end of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

The release of Butša in the spring of 2022 revealed the horrors of the siege of Kyiv. AOP

The expectations were higher than was reasonable. Especially when you take into account the West’s inability to send the promised amounts of ammunition and weapons. Ukraine made the once impossible possible. It is now expected from a war-torn country again and again.

At the same time, amid missile and drone attacks, Ukrainians have to solve problems ranging from energy sufficiency and protecting critical infrastructure to housing and evacuating those who have lost their homes.

According to a recent European opinion poll, only 10 percent believe that Ukraine can win. Just a year ago, the majority of Europeans believed that Ukraine should fight until it has recaptured all the territories occupied by Russia.

Last year began in the aftermath of Ukraine’s late 2022 victories: Kupjansk and Izjum in the Kharkiv region, as well as H’erson, were liberated. Now Russia is pushing back.

If you look at the development of the last two years, the fact that Ukraine continues to maintain its defense must be considered a real victory. Quick victories cannot be expected from a state that pushes the occupiers of one of the world’s largest military powers off its soil.

Russia’s military industry is pressing day and night, and forcing new ones to the front is not impossible in an autocratic state. In an emergency Vladimir Putin can rely on the vassal state of Belarus, whose dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko roams around when ordered to from the Kremlin.

We’ve heard platitudes about how Ukraine defends Russia while holding back all of Europe. In addition, a large number of Western countries belong to a defense alliance that has only one clear counterforce and enemy: Russia. In recent months, generals and ministers in the Western world have been competing to say how many years until the next great war with Russia: according to most, from five to ten years.

European countries have been afraid to boost their own strike capability, for example by paying attention to conscription and ammunition production. It would be more important to focus the bangs where they are needed now and not years from now. Especially when the much-talked-about threat of Russia will determine the success of the great power on the Ukrainian fronts.

Putin has shown no signs of getting bored, Medvedev is longing for Kiev, and the Russian army has increased its winter offensive to destabilize the front lines. Russia will not stop if it is not stopped.

Ukraine’s ammunition situation is so pathetic that the state will have to focus this year only on keeping Russia in check and gathering its ranks in order to launch another offensive in 2025. By then Europe will hopefully have figured out how to keep its promises.

At last, it should be clear to everyone in Europe that supporting Ukraine or believing in victory must not depend on front development. Frontline development can rather be seen as a message to decision-makers that promises must be fulfilled. It is embarrassing that the EU is not able to deliver to Ukraine the million ammunition it promised in a year, hardly even half of it. Russian partners do not have similar problems.

The urgency and seriousness of the situation is underlined by the fact that Donald Trump, who is trying to return to the presidency in the United States, has hinted at his reluctance to defend his NATO allies in Europe. If Russia does not lose in Ukraine, the next time Europe may have to stop it without the United States.