Ukraine could liberate Crimea by the end of summer / Article

LTV foreign news editor Gints Amoliņš invited Ben Hodžes to the conversation.

Gints Amoliņš: How could the course of hostilities develop in Ukraine this winter?

Ben Hodges: I foresee many tough battles in the next couple of months. Ukrainians won’t stop just because winter is coming.

Naturally, wheeled vehicles will have limited mobility. Circumstances won’t be very pleasant, that’s for sure. In some cases, visibility will be limited.

But in general, the Ukrainians will be much better trained, better equipped and disciplined soldiers. Thus they will be able to operate more effectively than these recently mobilized Russian soldiers, who find themselves at the end of a long, exhausted and vulnerable supply chain. Ukraine has advantages.

Now, if we talk about the Ukrainian counterattack that began in early September, it has two wings. The right wing is from Kherson. The left wing goes from Kharkiv to Izjuma and moves towards Mariupol.

I think the Ukrainians are working to enter precise positions and create the conditions by January to start the decisive phase of the operation, i.e. the liberation of Crimea.

Are you concerned that the Russians are preparing mobilized soldiers for war, thousands have also arrived in Belarus? Some of them were immediately sent to the front, unprepared. But some are still preparing for subsequent attacks.

First, let’s recall that partial mobilization in Russia began at the end of September. So – October, November – it turns out it was ten weeks ago. Ten weeks is the absolute minimum basic training time for a private in the US Army. That is, before he goes to study his specialty of him.

So, at best, these soldiers who have already been sent to the front have received less than ten weeks of training. And of course, that’s why they are killed there or it will be very difficult for them to survive and function effectively in extreme cold. Soldiers still do not mean effective units or combat capabilities. So I’m skeptical of their capabilities.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg warned against underestimating Russia. Do you think Russia will just wait for Ukraine to strike them and drive them out of the occupied territories?

No, the Russians aren’t just going to leave. They will be expelled. And they still have powers. They still have thousands of soldiers to deal with, even if they are poorly trained soldiers. And apparently they still have a lot of rockets and artillery.

But my assessment is that Ukraine has achieved irreversible offensive momentum. And as long as the West continues to support Ukraine, I think it’s inevitable, it will happen. The only question is how fast.

You said that the offensive momentum taken by the Ukrainians is irreversible. In your opinion, does this allow us to see the end of the war, which many have been wondering for several months? Can you predict when this war will end?

I think it will end with the complete liberation of Crimea. Crimea is the main prize. And I think that will probably happen by the end of next summer.

And what about Donbass, Mariupol?

To get to Crimea, you will first have to go through Mariupol and Melitopol. That’s what I mean when I talk about setting the stage for the next couple of months. I could be wrong, it might take longer, but knowing how methodical and thoughtful Ukrainians are… They are very disciplined.

And imagining what might be the morale and fighting spirit of Russian soldiers in the coming months… None of them are protecting their homeland.

Rocket and drone strikes are new tactics Russia has used against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the past month, since October 10, in an attempt to undermine morale in Ukraine. Do you think it works?

The Russians are losing everywhere, so their strategy now is to drag this war out as long as possible so they lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.

So Russia trades dead bodies for time forcing all these untrained soldiers to fight and then attacking cities, civilian targets and infrastructure.

They are trying to make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable this winter, hoping that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will then go to Europe, which would in turn put pressure on European capitals, which in turn, Russia hopes, would put pressure on Kiev. I think it will not pass. This will only add to the list of Russian war crimes charges.

CONTEXT:

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to start invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine. Putin claimed that NATO would use Ukraine as a springboard for aggression against Russia, although there was no evidence of such claims. Ukraine believes Putin’s real goal is to destroy Ukraine’s statehood and bring the territory under Moscow’s control.

In early autumn, in the Ukraine counterattack liberated from the occupants more territory than Russia had managed to capture since early April.

November 9th The leadership of the Russian troops announced, that a decision was made to withdraw troops from the city of Kherson and move to the left bank of the Dnieper River. On November 11, units of Russian troops left the city of Chersonwhere soon Ukrainian soldiers have entered.

Russia with missiles regularly bomb Ukrainian cities, to leave Ukrainians without electricity and heating in winter. The European Parliament is Russia said for being a state sponsor of terrorism.