The great powers of the European Union, Germany and France, are playing a different game with Russia than the United States and Britain to prevent potential warfare in Ukraine. The rhetoric of the German and French leaders towards Russia is not so sharp and condemning, nor do they help Ukraine with weapons. Germany even banned Estonians from supplying Ukraine with old German howitzers, while Russia pulled army units from all over the country around Ukraine. The TV show “de facto” analyzes why.
A few weeks ago, Russia received a written “no” from the United States and NATO on the security guarantees required by Russia. However, the West left room for negotiations on more technical issues, such as the transparency of military maneuvers and training.
In recent days, Russia has been spoken to in various formats, and Berlin and Paris are also trying to take on the role of negotiators in easing tensions, with their leaders planning successive visits to Moscow.
“We need to build specific security guarantees for EU member states, countries in the region, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Russia,” French President Emanuel Macron said after a nearly six-hour conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed his determination to work together on solutions.
Although Russia had chosen to hold the meeting in a reserved atmosphere, sitting down at the end of its long table, the French president tried to give the impression that he could agree on something with Russia at a press conference. The meeting between the British and Russian foreign ministers a few days later was much sharper and showed that the British could not talk to the Russians until Russia withdrew its military units from the Ukrainian border.
According to Makron, the positions of Russia and France are “points of contact”. However, Macron did not reveal to journalists what specific guarantees he had in mind. Putin did not immediately reject Makron’s offer, but reiterated his demands, including NATO’s non-enlargement and even retreat to its 1997 borders.
Putin told reporters that Russia had no intention of attacking anyone, but then played a card of nuclear war, demonstrating why it was important for Russia to capture Crimea in 2014.
“If Ukraine is in NATO and tries to recover Crimea by military means, then European countries will automatically be drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Of course, the potential for NATO and Russia is not comparable, we understand that, but we also understand that Russia is one of the nuclear powers, “Putin said.” There will be no winner. And you will find yourself drawn into this conflict against your will. ”
“Such rhetoric from the leader of such a large country as Russia is a very disturbing signal,” says retired Colonel Igors Rajevs of the Latvian NAF. He believes that Macron’s visit marks a different vision in the West to ease tensions, but that Macron’s activities also determine the upcoming elections in France in April.
“He can’t come and say, ‘Yeah, we talked, I didn’t get anything, it’s bad.’ No one will elect you with that result. We have to show such positive news, give our people, also internationally, that he is still an influential player and he is able to change the situation, ”says Rajev about Makron’s visit, but notes that Makron cannot solve this situation.
Professor Jean-Ozolo of the University of Latvia also agrees that the election is one of the reasons for Makron’s actions, but he has previously raised the issue of the security of the European Union, and France, which currently holds the bloc presidency, has traditionally been friendly towards Russia.
“In the case of Latvia, we should not be particularly worried about what Macron is talking to Putin, because it will be their bilateral deal. Latvia should be worried if Makrona’s ideas become EU ideas, but it seems that this could not happen, because there is strong enough opposition in Central and Eastern Europe, and such a one-person Macrona action will not be accepted by other member states, ”Ozoliņa is convinced.
During a visit to Kiev after Moscow, Macron told him that Putin had personally promised not to wash the tension further. But the Kremlin immediately denied it. The situation worsened in the second half of the week, when Washington said Russia’s offensive could begin in the coming days, citing intelligence.
Russia has not stopped the deployment of military forces around Ukraine for a while, in parallel with diplomatic talks. Six landing craft from the Baltic and North Sea fleets sailed into the Black Sea this week, and a national guard was brought to Ukraine, which Russia’s military concept envisages to follow in the territories occupied by the army.
“It is the National Guard that is more involved in police functions and is very well prepared for this task. As the appearance of this unit on the Ukrainian border shows that the plan to occupy some of the territories of Ukraine in the Kremlin has long been ready, ”Rajev believes.
However, the moment of surprise has long since faded, and Russia is not currently conducting a massive information campaign to justify the invasion, so not a single analyst suggests that Russia’s own tense process could be more important than a minor solution.
“In fact, Putin’s best position is to maintain tension and keep the potential threat of invasion as long and realistic as possible, while playing diplomatic games and trying to gain some benefits and security. Because by the time he invades, it’s all over, “says Rajev.
Western countries have threatened Russia with serious consequences if it attacks Ukraine. Both the United States and the European Union have already faced sanctions that will certainly be bolder in the case of the United States. To a large extent, European countries’ dependence on Russian gas is a factor that makes them speak less clearly, for example, to Germany, whose foreign policy is very much driven by business interests.
The new German Chancellor, Scholz, did not say a word about the newly built gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 in the White House this week, standing next to the US president, suggesting that Germany is not ready to put this important project for Russia and Germany at stake.
“If Russia invades, which means that tanks or units will cross the Ukrainian border again, there will be no more Nord Stram 2. We will put an end to that,” said US President Joe Biden.
Although Scholz did not mention the gas pipeline, he promised to act in concert: “We will be united, we will act together. We will take all the necessary steps and we will all take them together. ” He told CNN Scholch that no matter which Western leader meets with Putin, he will hear the same thing from everyone. From the outside, however, such an impression does not appear.
Ozolina believes that this is a very rare time when Western leaders speak the same thing, but the way to say it may be different. “Internationally, Putin has achieved great unity among Western leaders and, as we can see from research, society. Putin is no longer a supporter, an enlightener. What he has achieved is definitely a set of arguments that can be used internally to say – see how bad they are, we have to consolidate, but together we will solve the situation for the benefit of the external enemy, ”Ozoliņa concludes.
German Chancellor Scholz is scheduled to visit Moscow on Tuesday, the day before in Kiev. Prior to the visit, tensions have escalated, with several countries urging their diplomats to leave Ukraine.
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