The day before, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Kyiv. In the Ukrainian capital he announced £2.5 billion in military support. Also, Ukraine and Britain officially entered into a security agreement.
This is exactly the agreement that in Ukraine is called “security guarantees.” Over the past year, Kyiv has been actively negotiating with a number of Western countries to develop an algorithm of actions in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, and Britain became the first country to sign this agreement. The text of the agreement between Ukraine and Britain has already been published. It is divided into several parts. The introduction states that Britain supports Ukraine’s entry into NATO. The second paragraph deals with defense and military cooperation to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. To achieve this, Britain agreed to transfer military equipment, air defense systems, artillery and combat aircraft to Ukraine. London also undertakes to lead a maritime security coalition that will help the Ukrainian fleet.
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Rishi Sunak called the agreement the core of relations between Ukraine and the UK. The agreement is valid for 10 years or until Ukraine joins NATO. The new agreement between Moscow and Kiev was commented on by Maria Zolkina, a researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
– How do you assess this agreement?
– I assess it as an agreement of strategic importance, because Ukraine’s relations with our partners without Ukraine’s membership in NATO should reach a level where Kyiv is guaranteed to receive certain types of support and assistance, first of all, this concerns the military-industrial complex. The UK was the main initiator and leader at the Vilnius summit, when the G7 came out with a common declaration, proposing that Ukraine needs to start signing bilateral or multilateral agreements with partner states about future support so that this support is guaranteed over time and is not situational, not depended on changes in political power in certain partner states.
The UK, just as it was a leader six months ago at the Vilnius summit on this issue, has now completed this process with an agreement. However, I would be very careful with the wording. Because security guarantees in the classical sense of collective defense, that is, the participation of the British armed forces in this case is not provided for in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. And there were no expectations about this. This is rather a formalization and a guarantee that in defense procurement, arms supplies, logistics and in many other areas, the UK will strategically help Ukraine over the next ten years: lay down both finances and other types of assistance for this.
London is committed to continuing what they are doing now and expanding this cooperation. And if this war ends and a new one begins within the next ten years, then London will contact Kiev within 24 hours in order to receive a request and provide assistance. That is, this is not for a hypothetical new war, this is for continued assistance in this war, starting from today. However, this is not a classic interstate agreement. It will not be ratified by parliament either in Ukraine or in the UK. The level of mandatoryness of certain provisions will be much weaker, or rather completely different.
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“That is, if the parliaments do not ratify, then, conditionally, the Prime Minister in Great Britain will change, and the next one will not be a supporter of aid to Ukraine, and he will, in principle, be able to say: “I have no business here, I did not sign this, the parliament did not ratify.”
– Theoretically, yes, however, what is contained in this agreement has long-term significance. When a defense order is formed for the military-industrial enterprises of Great Britain, it is usually formed not for one year, but for three to five years. And if now we see in 2024 that finances will be earmarked directly for the production of weapons specifically for Ukraine, then even the change of power as a result of the elections that will take place now in the UK, nothing will change.
In Great Britain, no one speculates or exchanges money on the topic of Ukraine. And the current opposition, the Labor Party, is absolutely in agreement with the government that Ukraine needs to be supported as much as possible, that Ukraine should become a member of NATO. This is also a separate point from this agreement. This agreement does not in any way replace Ukraine’s desire to join NATO. On the contrary, the red line, the main element, is the emphasis on the fact that this treaty should help Ukraine get as close as possible to NATO and be able to defend itself until NATO membership becomes a reality.
2024-01-13 04:05:00
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