UK “ready like never before” for major third wave

At first glance, the picture portrayed by Philip Thomas seems particularly gloomy. “We would do well to prepare for a new wave of contaminations”, warns this professor of risk management at the University of Bristol, in The Spectator. “For weeks, the UK has been fortunate to have the lowest Covid levels in Europe. But we can expect to see some disturbing headlines on the subject soon.”According to his predictions, “So far generally true to reality”, each person carrying the Delta (Indian) variant of the virus, now dominant in the country, would infect “6.8 other members of a non-immune population group, a much higher multiplier effect than the Kent variant (4.5 people) or the starting virus (three other people)”.

However, there is no need to panic, assures the researcher. The United Kingdom “Is ready like never before” to face this “Third wave”, like the title of the conservative weekly, in one of its June 12 edition. “What matters is that the health system is unlikely to be saturated”, emphasizes Philip Thomas. These new infections, potentially as numerous “Even more” that during the peak of the second wave in January, “Should only concern young people, who are much less likely to develop a severe form of the virus”. Why the younger? “Because they are the ones who have not yet been vaccinated.” In short, the third wave would come globally “Crashing into the vaccination wall” while in total, more than half of the adult population has received two doses of the vaccine, mainly in the categories of the population most at risk.

In this context, there is no need to postpone the lifting of confinement, scheduled for June 21, as the government seems to be considering in the face of the increase in infections linked to the Delta variant (+ 79% in one week). “An important step has been taken: the Covid-19 has been demoted to the rank of a nasty virus which is now no more deadly than viruses such as the flu”, thanks to the vaccine, according to Philip Thomas, who still anticipates some 7,000 additional deaths (127,860 since the start of the pandemic). “The wave will happen, whether now or in September, after a summer of potential new restrictions.” According to the professor, most unvaccinated people, namely the youngest, will likely contract the virus in the months to come, without serious consequences. “Basically, if my calculations are correct, there will be no escaping it: either you have already had the virus or you are vaccinated, or you will have a good chance of catching the Covid this summer.” The “double-dosed”, them, “Will be able to continue living as if nothing had happened”.

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