The British government has drastically stepped up its response to the new coronavirus after being warned by scientists that the pandemic could cause more than 250,000 deaths in the UK without a change in strategy, British press reports on Tuesday.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday evening asked people to avoid contact and displacement “not essential“and recommended that the elderly and pregnant women isolate themselves for three months.
These measures remain less radical than those taken in neighboring countries, neither providing for the closure of schools, restaurants or performance halls, nor a formal ban on gatherings. However, they constitute a clear reinforcement compared to the controversial strategy adopted until then, which essentially consisted of isolating people with symptoms or returning from risk areas to ease the pressure on health services and promote the emergence of a “collective immunity“.
A risk of more than 500,000 deaths
According to the British press, this change of gear was motivated in particular by a report from Imperial College London, made public Monday evening.
According to the report, the epidemic could kill up to 510,000 people in the UK, in a purely hypothetical case where no action is taken.
With the type of response that was the government’s course of action until Monday, researchers estimate that the country risked up to 260,000 deaths, due to a “submersion“of his health system.
But stronger measures reducing contacts, similar to those announced on Monday, could on the other hand reduce to “a few thousand or tens of thousands“the number of deaths in the UK.
One of the study’s authors, Neil Ferguson, is part of the team that advised the British government, told the BBC that it had also passed its findings on to the US administration, which also stepped up its measures.
According to the newspaper Le Monde, it also influenced the very restrictive decisions adopted in recent days in France.
The United Kingdom has recorded 55 deaths and 1,543 cases of contamination, but tests are not carried out systematically, despite WHO recommendations, and the authorities have recognized that the actual number of cases is probably much higher.
According to Imperial College, the main difficulty of the new strategy will however be to be maintained “until a vaccine is available“, which could take at least 18 months.
–
