UI Expert Predicts RI’s Third Wave of Covid in December 2021

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia

Epidemiologist University of Indonesia (UI) Tri Yunis Miko predicts that Indonesia will enter the third peak Covid-19 or third wave in December 2021.

Miko explained that the prediction would occur if the achievement of Covid-19 vaccination did not reach 50 percent by the end of 2021, coupled with a lot of easing of activities even though the Implementation of Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) was implemented.

“I estimate that the third peak will occur if the vaccination achievement does not reach 50 percent and there is a lot of easing of activities like now. The prediction for December-January is likely to be the third peak,” Miko said when contacted. CNNIndonesia.com, Tuesday (21/9).

According to Miko, the easing of activities when PPKM is implemented will be one of the reasons for the third peak of Covid-19 in Indonesia. The mobility of people traveling will increase, so the risk of Covid-19 transmission also increases.

While mobility is starting to move, vaccination achievements have not yet reached 50 percent of the target. It is known that the Covid-19 vaccination target reached 208,265,720 people including health workers, the elderly, public officials, vulnerable communities, the general public, and children aged 12-17 years.

Based on data from the Ministry of Health as of September 20, 2021, the achievement of the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine was only 38.2 percent and 21.7 percent for the second dose. The strengthening of the vaccination program has recently been carried out to achieve the target of a minimum of 50 percent of the target being vaccinated.

However, Miko also emphasized that it was not only the issue of Covid-19 vaccination that would make Indonesia experience its peak again. The peak of cases is also indicated by the slow pace of contact tracing, and low supervision when Covid-19 patients are self-isolating.

“So yes, it will indeed peak again, if the 3T is weak, vaccination is not up to 50 percent, it will be smaller, and the release of community activities is outrageous,” he said.

Beware of long holidays

In addition to the three factors above, Miko also mentioned the possibility of an increase in cases because religious holidays are close to New Year’s holidays. Because usually, the increase in Covid-19 cases in Indonesia occurs after a long holiday which results in increased mobility of people.

Miko predicts that even if the vaccination achievement can reach 50 percent, the spike in cases could still occur due to the long holiday.

“There are Christmas and New Year holidays, this must also be a shared vigilance, if mobility is not restricted, the spike in cases will probably occur at the latest in March 2022,” he said.

Previously, the government began to be wary of the third wave of Covid-19 in Indonesia. This concern is because several countries in the world are starting to experience a surge in cases when the Covid-19 in Indonesia is experiencing an improvement trend.

“We have to be vigilant and stay disciplined about health protocols so that we don’t get a third wave or a third spike in the next few months,” Wiku said at a press conference, Tuesday (14/9).

One of the countries experiencing a surge in cases at this time is Singapore. Singapore’s Minister of Health, Ong Ye Kung even asked young Covid-19 patients who had received vaccines to isolate at home because the hospital was almost full.


[Gambas:Video CNN]


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