UCSD Fears Massive COVID Wave Hitting San Diego Around New Years

If our toilets are any indication, San Diego County could soon see a sharp increase in coronavirus cases.

On Saturday the 18th, UC San Diego officials warned that samples from the Point Loma wastewater treatment plant, which processes the waste of two out of three Sandieguinos, have the highest levels of coronavirus the university has seen since February. Both the delta and omicron variants of the virus are driving this rise.

Researchers have found that when viral levels rise in sewage, cases typically increase within a couple of weeks, putting the region on track for a significant increase in early 2022. And that prompts scientists and Public health officials should once again urge the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, the vaccinated to get boosted again, and everyone to think twice before attending large, unmasked gatherings indoors.

“There will be an unprecedented increase in COVID cases in San Diego. That’s already in the works, ”said Rob Knight, a microbiome expert and one of the leaders of UCSD’s wastewater monitoring effort. “There is still an opportunity to keep this in the sewage and out of the hospitals and the morgue.”

The surprise announcement of the weekend was the culmination of a short and intense fight on the part of the university. Around 4:30 p.m. Friday, Knight received a text message from a member of his team reporting the sharp increase. The university’s COVID-19 monitoring team was then quick to make sense of the data.

Your main question: Was omicron driving the increase? It would have taken at least a week to get a response through genetic sequencing. Instead, the researchers worked late into the night and into Saturday morning to run a molecular test specifically designed to distinguish the variants. That test revealed that both the delta and omicron variants were contributing to the increase.

“It’s like there are two pandemics at the same time, with different strains of the virus,” Knight said.

Sewage testing works because, although COVID-19 is best known for its attack on the respiratory tract, the virus also slides into the cells that line the intestines and can be eliminated through a person’s stool before make you feel sick.

Local data from last year shows that jumps in viral levels in sewage portend infections detected by standard nose and throat swabs.