[U.S. market]Stocks rise, nervous development ahead of inflation indicators-dollar in the high 134 yen range-Bloomberg

The US stock market rose on the 23rd. The market fluctuated a lot ahead of the release of the inflation index on the following day, but it ended in positive territory as high-tech stocks were bought. Markets are trying to see if a soft landing for the economy is still possible as the U.S. continues to raise interest rates aggressively.

The S&P 500 index began its rally, gaining nearly 1% before turning down briefly before returning to positive territory in the afternoon. The S&P 500 rose for the first time in five trading days. It rebounded from its 4,000 support line, which broke this week, and moved slightly above the key uptrend line from last October’s lows. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index outperformed. Microsoft and Apple rebounded from short losses, and Nvidia, which gave bullish sales forecasts, rose 14%.

Nvidia bullish forecast, AI initiative success-stock price rises in after-hours trading

The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, due out Wednesday, are expected to see a month-on-month acceleration in both headline and core inflation. The revised US real gross domestic product (GDP) for October-December 2022 (fourth quarter) announced on the morning of the 23rd has been revised downward from the preliminary figures. Inflation indicators, which are the focus of the US Fed, have been revised upward from preliminary figures. Separately, new U.S. unemployment insurance claims showed that the labor market remained tight.

U.S. GDP October-December Revised Figures Revised Downwards, Consumption Slows Down, Prices Revised Upwards (2)

U.S. unemployment claims fall to 3-week low

Michael Scholl, CEO of MarketField Asset Management, said between positive signs of continued economic stability in the U.S. and concerns that this resilience could lead to a tough policy response, investors Analyzes that the house is stuck. “Things could certainly get worse, but fears of a rapidly deteriorating economic cycle appear to have dissipated. “Although it has slowed down since the 1990s, we have confirmed that we have not yet entered a clear slump.”

After the rapid rise in stock prices since the beginning of the year ended in February, retail investors have become more bearish again. Market-focused bull-bear spreads fell to minus 17 in the week ending Friday, the most pessimistic view since the beginning of the year, according to a weekly survey by the Association of American Individual Investors (AAII).

Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, a quant investment firm, warned that U.S. stocks are vulnerable to macro shocks if inflation doesn’t fall as much as markets expect. Stocks are historically expensive even though they fell last year, he told Bloomberg Television.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy still has the potential for a soft landing, but there are hurdles to overcome. “The U.S. economy is doing really well right now. Consumers have plenty of money to spend. There are plenty of jobs,” Dimon said on CNBC. Something terrible awaits,” he said.

US Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries rise. He responded to remarks by JPMorgan’s Dimon and former Treasury Secretary Summers on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Improved supply outlook and short covering also contributed to the price boost. In the morning, the yield fell temporarily, and there was also a scene where the yield on the 5-year and 10-year bonds rose to the highest level since the beginning of the year.

foreign exchange

In the New York foreign exchange market, the dollar index fell. The drop in US Treasury yields in response to Dimon and Summers’ remarks had an effect.

The yen strengthened against the dollar, reaching the high 134 yen level to the dollar. In the morning, the exchange rate temporarily dropped to 135.36 yen in response to US economic indicators and remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, making it the lowest since the beginning of the year.

Governor Kuroda, BOJ to continue easing – Inflation to fall below 2% in mid-FY2011 (2)

crude

New York crude oil futures rose for the first time in seven trading days. The longest downward phase since December last year has come to an end. Buying activity intensified after it approached the oversold zone the previous day.

“The market is at a standstill in the shoulder season, which is not yet summer and not yet over winter,” said Rob Howarth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. I am doing,” he said.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for April closed at $75.39 a barrel, up $1.44, or 2%, from the previous day. The London ICE North Sea Brent April delivery rose $1.61 to $82.21.

Money

New York gold futures fell for a fourth straight day. The spot market dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the year for a while as it became aware of the trajectory of the US policy interest rate.

New claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly last week. It was the lowest level in three weeks, suggesting that the labor market remains tight. The October-December 2022 (fourth quarter) U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) revision has been revised downward from the preliminary figures. The downward revision of personal consumption has had an impact. Inflation indicators, which are the focus of the US Fed, have been revised upward from preliminary figures.

“Gold has remained sluggish as the market appears to be close to reaching a consensus on how high U.S. rates will go,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. He said the economic data “increased the risk of further Fed action” and “will hinder a significant rally in gold” until employment and inflation data are released next month.

Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) fell $14.70, or 0.8%, to close at $1,826.80 an ounce. The spot price fell 0.4% to $1,817.58 at one point.

Original title:Stocks See Tug of War With Tech All Over the Place: Markets Wrap(excerpt)