[U.S. market]Stocks continue to rise, S&P 500 approaches 4000-yen rises to 127 – Bloomberg

The US stock market continued to rise on the 13th. All major stock indexes closed at their highest levels in about a month. Falling inflation expectations helped. Bank stocks were temporarily sold off as major banks announced worrying forecasts in their financial results announcements, but have recovered.

The S&P 500 index rose above its 200-day moving average and closed close to 4,000. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America (BofA), Citigroup and Wells Fargo all posted higher earnings in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Nasdaq 100 index, which is centered on large tech stocks, has risen for six consecutive days. This was the longest streak since November 2021 and hit a new high in the same month. Closed on the 16th in observance of Martin Luther King’s birthday.

JPMorgan sees 2023 net interest income forecast below market expectations

“It’s been a back and forth,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “I don’t really agree with the extreme pessimism that things are going to get worse. On the other hand, I don’t agree with the other extreme that we’ve already started a new bull market. We’re not there yet. I think,’ he said.

In the United States, short-term inflation expectations fell in January to their lowest level in almost two years. A University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey revealed that consumer sentiment has risen more than expected.

U.S. Inflation Expectations One Year Ahead Fall to First Level in Nearly Two Years – University of Michigan Survey (2)

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said price pressures were easing in many sectors, paving the way for a slowdown in the pace of U.S. rate hikes to 0.25 percentage points at the Fed’s next meeting. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed started discussing stopping rate hikes in the near future,” he added.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is leaning towards a smaller interest rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting after December’s consumer price index (CPI) data released yesterday. said that

Atlanta Fed’s ‘not uncomfortable’ with 25bp rate hike

US Treasuries

US Treasuries fell. In the closing stages of trading, the range of decline expanded, mainly for short-term bonds. However, it rose on a weekly basis.

foreign exchange

In the foreign exchange market, the yen has risen across the board against the 10 major currencies. This is due to speculation that the Bank of Japan will once again take hawkish policy actions. dollar falls. Markets continued to sell on yesterday’s US CPI, amid signs that the Fed is heading toward the end of its tightening cycle.

The yen rose by more than 1% against the dollar to the high 127 yen level to the dollar. At one point, the stock price rose 1.4% to 127.46 yen.

“Market participants are expected to report on the Yomiuri Shimbun on the 12th.reportI interpreted that the Bank of Japan will bring forward monetary tightening.” “Market participants could be disappointed if the BOJ does not maintain its ultra-accommodative policy at next week’s policy meeting and signal that it is considering tightening in the near future,” he said.

“Investors are starting to worry about accumulating short dollar positions, but are now expecting further losses,” Bank of America strategists led by Athanasios Bambakidis wrote in a note to clients. pointed out. “Clients agree with our concerns that inflation is unlikely to fall, but don’t want to fight the market right now because the timing is unclear.”

crude

New York crude oil futures rose for seven consecutive days. It was the biggest weekly gain in three months, reversing much of the sharp decline seen in the previous week. There is growing optimism about China’s economic recovery.

China is buying more oil after import quotas by authorities, and oil consumption hit a record high this year as it scrapped draconian coronavirus measures.PredictIt is

SEB’s chief commodities analyst Bianne Shierdrop said the factors that led to lower oil prices in the second half of 2022, including China’s coronavirus fight and global recession fears, are now reversing. “When China reconnects with Asia and the world, demand will grow significantly,” she said.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose $1.47, or 1.9 percent, to $79.86 a barrel. On a weekly basis, the stock rose more than 8%, its biggest gain since October last year. London ICE North Sea Brent March delivery closed at $85.28, up $1.25 (1.5%) from the previous day.

Money

The New York gold market continued to rise. Both spot and futures prices hit an eight-month high.

Spot prices rose for the fourth straight week on a weekly basis. The US consumer price index announced the day before (ＣＰＩ), and the view that the financial authorities will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes spread.

Some Fed officials believe the central bank still needs to raise interest rates significantly to curb inflation.

“Additional interest rate hikes and lower inflation will lead to another outflow from the gold market,” said UBS Group analyst Giovanni Stonovo. “But right now, that is offset by strong central bank demand,” he said.