U.S. Intelligence Chief: Russia Unable to Launch Strong Offensive, May Use Delaying Tactics

WASHINGTON (Agence France-Presse) WASHINGTON (AFP) – US intelligence chief Avril Haines said on Monday that Russia’s military presence in Ukraine had been weakened to the point where it could no longer launch a major offensive and that the immediate focus was on tightening control over the occupied territories. Agence France-Presse reported that Haines said that as Ukraine prepares to launch a counteroffensive in the near future, Russian President Vladimir Putin is still likely to want to stretch the front line until the Western countries can no longer help Kiev.

“Putin’s ambitions may have diminished at the moment, and he just wants to consolidate control of the territories occupied by Udon and Unan and ensure that Ukraine never becomes a member of NATO,” Haynes told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

But Haynes also said that regardless of whether Ukraine regains most of the lost land in the east and south or the stalemate remains unresolved, Putin is unlikely to make concessions to promote peace talks.

“The challenge is that even if Putin may scale back his short-term ambitions, there is little chance that Russia will make concessions this year to advance peace talks, unless Russia’s domestic political fragility is such that Putin changes his mind,” she said.

Haynes also mentioned that during Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive, it received weapons, ammunition supplies and training from the West. In contrast, the Russian army’s ammunition and manpower are already “extremely short.”

“Even if the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not fully successful, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to launch another major offensive this year,” Haynes said.

She said that to maintain even a minimal offensive, Putin would have to order the mobilization of troops and obtain vast supplies of ammunition from other countries, far greater than what Iran has provided.

“We continue to assess that Putin’s most likely calculation is that time is in his favour, and prolonging the war may be his best remaining method to ultimately secure Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine,” Haynes said.

Haynes said Russian military losses had been so great that the force “would take years to rebuild”. (Translator: Ji Jinling)