A number of U.S. economic data were better than expected. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen bluntly stated that the economy has achieved a soft landing, which drove U.S. stocks to close higher on the 5th, and U.S. bonds set off a selling wave. Among them,10-year U.S. Treasury yieldStanding above 4%, long-term U.S. bond ETFs related to Taiwan stocks weakened in response. Selling pressure emerged as soon as the market opened today (8th). As of midday, many stocks fell by more than 1%.
Yuanta U.S. Bond 20 Years (00679B-TW) fell more than 1% intraday, facing a battle to defend the 30 yuan level, the lowest in nearly a month; Cathay 20-year U.S. Treasury Bonds (00687B-TW), Fubon U.S. Bond 20 Years (00696B-TW), Qunyi 25-year U.S. Bond (00764B-TW), KGI US Bond 25+ (00779B-TW), unified U.S. debt for 20 years (00931B-TW) and other stocks also fell by more than 1%, which is a relatively weak group among Taiwan stock ETFs.
Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that non-farm employment increased by 216,000 people in December last year, far exceeding market expectations of 170,000. The previous value was significantly revised down to 173,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, lower than market expectations of 3.8% and the same as the previous value. Such hot economic data dampened traders’ expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates as soon as March.
The futures market has adjusted its expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to about 65%. Against this background, U.S. debt has set off a wave of selling.10-year U.S. Treasury yieldAfter climbing on Thursday, it rose about 5 basis points to 4.04%, rising by 16.67 basis points this week.
Looking ahead, the market will turn its focus to the latest inflation data, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next Thursday.
Eastspring Investment Trust said that the dot plot indicates that this cycle of interest rate hikes has ended; the experience of stopping interest rate hikes in the past five times shows that the average performance of U.S. investment grade bonds is higher than that of U.S. government bonds and non-investment grade bonds. The current layout of investment grade bonds is It is a good time, and it is recommended that investors step up their involvement to grasp the market outlook.
Eastspring Investment – The high-quality corporate bond fund research team stated that due to the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve and the uncertainty of the political and economic situation, bond yields have risen, causing the 100-dollar quotation of investment-grade bonds to plummet, once falling to 90 US dollars. below; although the current yield rate has fallen and the quotation has rebounded, it is still at a rare level below $95, which is a relatively worthy price point.
Eastspring Investment – The high-quality corporate bond fund research team further pointed out that bond prices have “mean reversion” characteristics. As long as the bond does not default, no matter how the price fluctuates, it will eventually return to 100 yuan; while the default rate of investment grade bonds is low, in 1998 The average default rate since the beginning of this year is 0.09%, with a maximum of no more than 0.4%. Therefore, as long as there are opportunities to buy at a discount, profits are worth looking forward to. It is recommended that investors start planning.
2024-01-08 03:26:03
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