Supported by higher U.S. bond yields,dollar indexUp on the first trading day of 2024. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the latest U.S. employment data and European inflation data for clues about central bank policy.
In late New York trading on Tuesday (2nd), ICE tracked the U.S. dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.8% to 102.18, its largest single-day gain in months.
Investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates significantly this year and the U.S. economy to remain resilient.dollar indexIt will fall 2% in 2023, halting two consecutive years of gains.
In terms of U.S. Treasury bonds,10-year U.S. Treasury yieldIt rose 7.7 basis points to 3.937%, the largest single-day gain in more than three weeks.
Although the Fed hinted last month that it would cut interest rates in 2024, which put pressure on the dollar, Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said the market is gradually realizing that the U.S. economy is still strong and may maintain this momentum this year.
Thin believes that in the case of a soft landing of the economy, the Fed may cut interest rates 2 to 3 times this year, but the market still predicts 6 interest rate cuts this year. So until these expectations shift, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure.
As the U.S. dollar rises,EURIt fell more than 0.9% to $1.0943. The latest data shows thatEURManufacturing activity in the region shrank for the 18th consecutive month in December.
GBPIt fell 0.8% to $1.2618.JPYIt also fell by more than 0.8% to 142 JPYagainst 1 US dollar.
Investors will receive a series of economic data this week, including European inflation, U.S. job vacancies and non-farm payrolls reports, which will help shape investors’ expectations for the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).
In addition, the minutes of the December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are scheduled to be released on Wednesday (3rd), which will further reveal the Fed President’s views on the possibility of cutting interest rates.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates starting in March is about 79%.
Investors are also dealing with volatile oil prices. Oil price gains have faded as concerns eased that tensions in the Red Sea could disrupt supply chains.
Before the deadline, the U.S. dollar rose more than 1.2% against the Swedish krona to 10.2065 krona.Canadian DollarsUp 0.65% to 1.3321 Canadian dollar，Australian dollarIt fell nearly 0.67% to $0.6761.
cryptocurrencyOn the other hand, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is about to approveBitcoinAs expectations for spot ETFs continue to rise,BitcoinIt hit $45,912.48 earlier, a new high since April 2022, an increase of 3.3%.
As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Wednesday (3rd), price:
- dollar indexReport 102.2343. +0.9004%
- EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst $1.0940. -0.9417%
- GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2619. -0.8096%
- Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6760. -0.6905%
- USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate is quoted at 1.3323 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。+0.6497%
- USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate is quoted at 141.98 to 1 U.S. dollar JPY。+0.8094%
2024-01-02 22:17:13
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