The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield has recently returned to the 4% mark, and bond prices have also retreated slightly. However, it is still the market consensus to start cutting interest rates this year. Investors are waiting for opportunities to deploy U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. Among them, Cathay 20-year U.S. Treasury Bonds (00687B-TW) explodes in large amounts every day, and has topped the trading volume of prototype U.S. bond ETFs for 13 consecutive trading days (2023/12/21-2024/1/9), with an average trading volume of 51,000 contracts.
According to the Bank of America manager survey in December, 62% of the managers surveyed believe that bond yields will tend to decline and prices will rebound in the next year. This ratio has reached a new high since 2003, indicating that most managers are optimistic about the future performance of the bond market.
Since the opening of 2024, market optimism about interest rate cuts has reversed.10-year U.S. Treasury yieldContinued to rise, with the release of small non-agricultural and non-agricultural employment data, the yield rate rebounded from 3.79% to over 4%. The U.S. small non-farm ADP increased by 164,000 monthly in December, and non-farm employment increased by 216,000, both better than market expectations. The unemployment rate during the same period was 3.7%.
Overall, labor market growth remains solid, and the market has further adjusted expectations for interest rate cuts. According to 1/9 FedWatch information, the probability of an interest rate cut in March has dropped to 59.1%. Overall, the trend of interest rate cuts this year remains unchanged. The latest interest rate dot plot shows that the rate of interest rate cuts throughout the year is expected to reach 3%.
Jiang Yuteng, fund manager of the Cathay 20-year U.S. Bond ETF, said that the recent retracement of bond prices can be seen as an opportunity to take on U.S. bond ETFs at low prices and reduce holding costs. , there is also room for capital gains to look forward to in the future. Historical data shows that if you enter the market when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the last time and deploy long-term U.S. bonds, the cumulative return of holding for two years can be as high as 20%.
Many active investors have turned their attention to Cathay Pacific’s 20-year U.S. debt positive 2(00688L-TW), due to the recent strong buying momentum, the fund recently applied for the first fund raising and was approved by the Financial Supervisory Commission and the Central Bank.New Taiwan Dollar The 20 billion yuan quota is open for subscription. The advantage of leveraged ETFs is to quickly obtain exposure and amplify returns. In addition, using futures for margin trading, they bear less exchange rate risk than prototype bond products. However, Cathay Investment Credit also reminds that leveraged products are highly volatile and should be used as short-term operating tools. Investors should also be good at setting stop-profit and stop-loss prices.
2024-01-12 10:18:03
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