At 9:00 am on Sunday, December 17th, a tropical cyclone developing to the east of Mindanao Island in the Philippines became Typhoon No. 17 (Jerawat).
It’s been about two months since a typhoon occurred. As of now, the number of typhoons occurring this year is about 30% lower than in a normal year.
Typhoons occur every year in December, so it is not uncommon.
▼Typhoon No.17 December 17th (Sun) 9:00 am
Center location East of Mindanao
Size class //
Strength class //
Move west 20 km/h
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 25 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
Moving westward near the Philippines, no significant development expected
Typhoon No. 17 is expected to move from east to west near the Philippines, but it is not expected to develop significantly in the future, and it is expected to lose strength and become a tropical cyclone by the day after tomorrow, the 19th (Tuesday). .
There is no impact on Japan.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of the wide range of possible paths.
Comparing these members, it can be seen that after moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.
Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%
First typhoon in about 2 months, slower pace than normal
Number of typhoons in a normal year
This is the first typhoon in about two months since Typhoon No. 16, which occurred on October 18th, and the first typhoon since November. The average number of typhoons in December is 1.0, and typhoons occur every year during this time, so it is not unusual.If we add up the number of typhoons that occur in a normal year, the number of typhoons that occur by November is about 24, so it can be said that the number of typhoons that occur this year is about 7 to 8 fewer than normal. If the current pace continues, the number of typhoons this year is likely to be about 30% lower than in a normal year.
Looking at statistics since 1951, 2010 had the lowest number of typhoons in a year with 14, followed by 1998 with 16. If the number of typhoons this year reaches 17 to 19, it will be the third year with the least number of typhoons on record, following these years, so it could be considered an unusually low number.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order in which they occur.
The name “Jelawat” for Typhoon No. 17 was proposed by Malaysia and is taken from the name of a freshwater fish.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
2023-12-17 01:29:00
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