Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven): Updates, Forecast, and Potential Impact on Japan

2023/10/08 06:42 Weather News

As of 6:00 on Sunday, October 8th, Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven) is slowly moving westward near the Truk Islands.

Please pay close attention to future typhoon information as there is a possibility that the typhoon will move northward into the waters near Ogasawara with very strong force. After that, it is likely to turn northeast.

▼Typhoon No.15 October 8th (Sun) 6:00
Center location Near Truk Islands
Size class //
Strength class //
moving west slowly
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 25 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Turning to the northeast near Ogasawara?

Typhoon No. 15 is expected to move through an area suitable for development and become an extremely strong typhoon with a central pressure of 935 hPa on the 12th (Thursday), five days away. There is a risk of severe weather in the Mariana Islands, including Guam, and caution is required.

After that, there is an increasing possibility that the typhoon will move north into the waters near Ogasawara, and depending on its course, Chichijima Island in the Ogasawara Islands and other areas may be affected by the typhoon, so please check future typhoon information.

Although it is moving northwest around the Pacific high pressure system to the latitude near the Ogasawara Islands, it is likely that it will gradually change its course to the east because the Pacific high pressure system has retreated compared to the summer. The jet stream in the sky is also expected to move southward to Honshu, so there is little chance of the typhoon approaching Honshu.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of ​​the wide range of possible paths.

Comparing these members, it can be seen that after moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.

Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.

Probability of entering the storm area of ​​a typhoon

The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%

First typhoon in October

This is the first typhoon in about a week since Typhoon Koinu, which formed at the end of September and was moving westward in the South China Sea. This is the first typhoon to occur in October.

The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4, which tends to be less than in the summer, but September to October is a period when many typhoons approach and land in the Honshu area, so we cannot let our guard down.

It is possible that typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in the future, so please do not relax your measures against typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode

typhoon name

There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order in which they occur.

The name of Typhoon No. 15, Bolaven, was proposed by Laos and is taken from the name of a plateau in southern Laos.
» Radar typhoon mode

Reference materials etc.

2023-10-07 21:42:00
#Typhoon #Bolaven #careful #impact #Ogasawara #Islands #weekend