It is called a rebound, but someone has renamed it “rebound”: it indicates the possible ‘U’ rebound of GDP, with an expected +10 for the July-September quarter compared to the previous 90 days. It is the object of desire of businesses, families, banks, trade unions, as well as the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, and the entire government. A goal that seemed far from our possibilities, but which, surprisingly, could become reality within a few weeks, if the new GDP data were to be in line with the numbers on industrial production for July, which marks a + 7.4% on June, …
Is called rebound, but someone has renamed it “bounce”: it indicates the possible U-shaped restart of GDP, with an expected +10 for the July-September quarter compared to the previous 90 days. It is the object of desire of businesses, families, banks, trade unions, as well as the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, and the entire government.
A target which seemed far from ours possibility, but which, surprisingly, could become reality within a few weeks, if the new GDP figures are in line with the numbers on the industrial production in July, which is + 7.4% on June, better than France and Germany.
The state of health of the Italian economy remains serious: just think of the 30% drop in VAT openings between April and June. But the ascent from the abyss continues. In April, in full lockdown, production had fallen by 50% on the previous year, in May by 20%, in June by 13.9%, in July we are at -8%. Of course, on the whole of seven months 2020 we are at -17 points as an average, in comparison with 2019. But the trend of July it is also qualitative: the recovery has been very diversified, with sectors that increase in double figures on June (computers and means of transport) and others that are unable to recover the losses of the months of lockdown (textiles and clothing). Others, such as food and pharmaceuticals, balance their accounts with 2019.
On average for the quarter – report from Istat – the level of production grew by 15% compared to the previous three months, two of which had lockdown. The signs of recovery are not lacking, therefore, and are accompanied by other positive indications: from electricity consumption to the trend in tax revenues, passing through exports. Just the exports, after the -11.3% forecast for this year, they should benefit from a 9.3% surge in 2021, as indicated by the Sace report presented yesterday.
In short, the evaluation of the Minister Gualtieri: “The figure of 7.4% is more than double compared to expectations. We are below the levels of July 2019, but the thesis of a strong rebound in GDP in the third quarter is supported. We must proceed with caution and we have challenging months ahead of us, but we can be confident of a gradual return to normal. “
In agreement with him, the managing director of Intesa San Paolo, Carlo Messina. To offer a number on the rebound is precisely the chief economist of the banking group, Gregorio De Felice: “The Italian GDP, in the third quarter of 2020, should record a growth of 10%”. This would bring GDP for the entire year to -9.5%, with a +6.5 in 2021. “On exports and industry – he explains – we will recover sooner, while for services it will be a more gradual recovery”.
To push towards the exit from the great frost of Coronavirus even the last ones ECB forecasts, which, as the governor Christine Lagarde warns, revises the growth estimates of the Eurozone for this year for the better: it goes from the -8.7% estimated in June to a slightly more optimistic -8%.
Dal Poz: “We are getting better but it’s not over”
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