Before him growing conflict between Ukraine and Russiathere is the possibility of a possible interruption of the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory, Türkiye could become the main alternative for the supply of gas to Europe. With the end of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine scheduled for December 31, uncertainty over the continuity of the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is a critical issue. This agreement, which has allowed Europe to receive Russian gas through Ukraine, seems to have little chance of being renewed, due to the war tensions between both countries.
In the midst of this crisis, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Péter Szijjártó, has indicated that the solution to mitigate the effects of a possible interruption of gas supplies from Ukraine could be in the TurkStream gas pipeline. This gas pipeline, which transports Russian gas across the Black Sea to Türkiye, has been key in the energy relationship between Russia and Türkiye. Currently, this channel allows the distribution of gas to countries in southeastern Europe, including Hungary, Greece, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania.
Hungary is one of the few European countries that has maintained close relations with Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine. The Hungarian Government has been firm in its position to ensure energy supplies to the European continent. Szijjártó stated that Your country will not be affected by the possible interruption of transit through Ukraine, as Hungary receives all its gas from Russia via TurkStream. In addition, he highlighted that other Central European countries could also benefit from this alternative, especially if the situation in Ukraine does not improve.
On the other hand, Russia has shown a willingness to maintain gas flows to Europe, but has also made it clear that it cannot force Ukraine to renew the transit agreement, which would undoubtedly harm the European Union and its European partners. Given this situation, Moscow has begun to evaluate alternative routes, among which TurkStream is emerging as the most viable.
In 2023, Russia will transport approximately 15 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukrainewhich represented just 8% of the maximum volumes of gas sent to Europe in the years before the conflict. This significant reduction has raised concerns in Europe, which depends on Russian gas to supply its energy market. The situation is aggravated by tensions in Ukraine, which makes the search for new routes a priority.
Besides, Gazprom, the Russian state gas company, signed a memorandum of understanding with Hungary to increase gas supplies in case of an interruption. Although no specific details were given about this agreement, Hungary was satisfied with its relationship with Gazprom, ensuring that there are no attractive alternatives for gas supply in the short term.
NATO member Türkiye has balanced its relations with both Russia and Ukraine during the conflict. Ankara believes that its strategic position and gas transit capacity, both for domestic consumption and for export to Europe, will allow it to consolidate itself as an important gas distribution center. This reinforces the country’s role in supplying energy to Europe, especially in a scenario in which traditional Russian gas routes are compromised.
For all of the above, if Ukraine decides not to renew its energy agreement with Russia, Türkiye could become the new gateway for Russian gas to Europeconsolidating itself as a key State for energy security for Europe.
