In the coming days / weeks, apparently, a Turkish military operation in northern Syria will begin. Already the fourth in a row. It will cover four districts in two provinces that the Turks and local groups loyal to them failed to take in 2019.
Firstly, this is the city of Manbij and its environs in the northeast of the province of Aleppo. In 2019, when Turkey was conducting Operation Source of Peace, the United States and its allies withdrew from there, Syrian and Russian troops entered there, according to agreements with the Kurds, to curb Turkey’s further advance towards the city.
This is a landmark place for the Kurds, one of their headquarters, where their Manbij Military Council, a stronghold of the pro-American SDF units, is located. The Kurds fought hard for him in 2016, when, at the cost of killing up to a thousand people, they knocked out ISIS terrorists from there.
Turkish troops will strike from the side of the Syrian regions of Afrin, Aazaz and Jarablus already under their control
Secondly, it is the Kurdish enclave of Tal Rifaat north of Aleppo. It, too, has been guarded by Syrian troops and Russian military police since 2018, after the Turks took over the neighboring region of Afrin. Thousands of Kurdish families fled there from Afrin, expelled by pro-Turkish groups or left their homes because of the war.
Thirdly, this is the area of the city of Kobani in the province of Aleppo, on the very border with Turkey. Since 2019, a limited contingent of Russian military police and Syrian troops has been present here, although the city is de facto controlled by the Kurds. Kobani is also a legendary city, from the defense of which a large-scale Kurdish counteroffensive against IS militants began in 2014-2015 with the support of an international coalition led by the United States.
Fourthly, this is the Ain Issa region in the north of Raqqa province. Syrian troops have been conducting joint patrols here since 2019 with the Kurdish SDF units that still control the town. In 2020-2021, clashes between Syrian-Kurdish troops and pro-Turkish groups often broke out here.
The Biden administration will unwittingly repeat Trump, who in 2019 simply gave Turkey the green light to attack the Kurds
Turkish troops will strike from the side of the Syrian regions of Afrin, Aazaz and Jarablus already under their control. As before, the main striking force will be local pro-Turkish groups assembled in the “Syrian National Army” (SNA).
The Syrian Kurds will not want to give up these territories just like that. However, without external support, the Kurdish forces are unlikely to be able to withstand the combined power of the Turkish Armed Forces and local groups. Even the support of the Syrian army does not guarantee that they will hold these territories.
Therefore, the main issue in this story will be the position of the United States and Russia. Between them there is no longer the coordination that was before the war in Ukraine, which, obviously, Ankara uses. However, each side has something to lose: image, influence on the Kurds and positions in Syria.
Turkey’s invasion will in any case require Ankara to either negotiate with Russia
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, speaking at NATO today, said that Turkey’s military operation in Syria would undermine regional stability, and that Washington was against it. However, will they intervene on the side of the Kurds? Probably not. However, against the background of the war in Ukraine, this may look bad, and the Biden administration will unwittingly repeat Trump, who in 2019 simply gave Turkey the green light to attack the Kurds.
RF comments on this situation less. Literally the day before, telephone conversations took place between Erdogan and Putin. What they agreed on and whether they agreed is an open question. Apparently, we will learn about Moscow’s position regarding the Turkish invasion and about possible agreements between them when everything starts.
Turkey’s invasion in any case will require Ankara to either agree with Russia on how to properly divide this sphere of influence, or fight, hoping that Moscow will withdraw its forces and not resist, being busy with the war in Ukraine.
The Turkish military operation will be a serious challenge primarily for the West and NATO, with which Ankara has a main line of disagreement over the Kurdish issue and regional security.
Iliya Kusa, international analyst, expert on international politics and the Middle East of the analytical center “Ukrainian Institute of the Future”
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