How much did the economy affect Turkey’s local government elections last Sunday, March 31? If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had increased pensions as expected, he would have managed to prevent a landslide defeat for himself and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), even in its stronghold, raising unprecedented expectations in the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP);
Demirel’s “empty pot”.
“In the Turkish political scene, there is a perennial belief that there is a strictly close connection between voting behavior and the current economic well-being of voters. One of the former presidents, Suleiman Demirel, expressed it eloquently with the proverbial phrase “An empty pot overthrows the government”. This theory worked very well until the presidential elections last May”, argues, speaking to BIMA, the professor of Economic Studies, at the Aegean University of Izmir, Aykut Lenger.
Economy and voting behavior
“Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the recent presidential election in 2023, despite the most serious economic crisis in the history of the Turkish Republic. For the majority of voters, Erdogan was the only viable option, while for the center-right and the right, who would never support a left-wing candidate, Erdogan outweighed even the legendary right-wing leaders in the history of the 100-year-old democracy. This acquired position seemed to disrupt the traditional relationship between economic conditions and voting behavior,” the Turkish professor points out.
In 2nd place after 22 years
The specific correlations “seem to have been restored” in the March 31 elections. “Erdogan’s party fell to second place after 22 years”.
The economic crisis
What has changed since last May, when Turkish voters renewed their trust in the face of the Turkish president? “The economic crisis deepened. The stubborn and unscientific, unorthodox economic policy that Erdogan himself has been personally pursuing since August 2021, such as the reduction of the Central Bank’s interest rates, has led the country to its worst economic crisis.
The Turkish lira fell and inflation rose to 123% according to an independent group of researchers on inflation in Turkey. “Wage growth has lagged far behind real inflation, making living conditions much more difficult,” notes the expert.
Return to neoliberal policies
Erdogan’s government, however, returned to neoliberal policies after the May elections, he continues. Mehmet Simsek, when he was appointed Minister of Economy and Finance (considered likely to be one of the cabinet figures that Erdogan will sacrifice, taking stock of the heavy defeat), “did not make any concessions to the neoliberal agenda. The cost of economic stabilization policies to reduce inflation weighed on middle and lower incomes. Wage increases have remained moderate and real wage increases have been negative, leading to even more difficult living conditions for much of the population.”
The fictitious increase in the minimum wage
The lowest pension was €214 in July 2023 and increased to €235. “The increase was even lower than official inflation. Many believe that the reluctance of the government to increase the real income of the masses played a significant role in the decline of the votes of Erdogan’s party,” emphasizes the Professor of Economic Studies.
The CHP and how it emerged
The CHP, he adds, which was accused of “neglecting the field, of not abandoning Ankara or at least some cities in western Turkey, behaved differently in the last municipal elections, working at the village scale. Its executives visited villages and explained their model for rural development.”
The results are tangible, according to Professor Lenger. “Villages that were supposed to vote CHP since 1950 turned out CHP in the last election.” He gives the example of Manisa, a conservative province where the ballot box counted 93,000 out of 141,000 votes in favor of the CHP, while the votes for the CHP were just 10,000 in the last presidential election. “There are many similar examples,” explains the Turkish academic. “Thus, in some cities and towns, the CHP took power, marking the first time a left-wing party has taken the reins. Therefore, the combination of opposition party effort and poor economic conditions mattered in the local elections – even though conservative rural provinces may have started to heed the opposition’s election pledges because of the tough economic conditions.”
The Erdogan dilemma
What’s next? “Erdogan’s dilemma is now: will his government continue to follow the orthodox economic program or will it turn again to unorthodox policies?” Because the move away from neoliberal policies worsened economic performance, even though the return to economic orthodoxy, after May 2023, worsened living conditions even more. Of course, the failure of previous unorthodox economic policy, which focused exclusively on lowering interest rates, came from overlooking the fact that economic unorthodox requires a more comprehensive approach than simply lowering interest rates. Therefore, it does not seem to be a viable option for Erdogan,” predicts the professor.
Proponents of economic orthodoxy emphasize that gradual improvement takes considerable time. “Erdogan may believe that the opportunity grudgingly given to orthodox policies has not yet been fully exploited, considering that the effects of neoliberal policies are seen in the long run.”
The next presidential election is scheduled for 2028. “So there is plenty of time to achieve some results in the meantime, but the living conditions of large numbers of people will continue to deteriorate.”
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