/ world today news/ Two days before the start of the voting, the main opponent of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Western-backed Kemal Kulacdaroglu, announced “Moscow’s interference” in the elections in Turkey. Such statements were prompted by the withdrawal of one of the presidential candidates, who was allegedly compromised by Russian hackers. Erdogan was also forced to talk about how the US and other Western countries are supporting the opposition.
The two main contenders for the presidency of Turkey have avoided polarization on the issue of foreign policy for several months. Both lone opposition candidate Kemal Kulçdaroğlu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have occasionally paid compliments to both Russia and the United States—if not personally, then through their closest aides. Both were probably afraid of scaring hesitant voters with rude gestures. However, a few days before the elections, the opposition decided to take a clear anti-Russian position. Kulçdaroğlu complained to Moscow, accusing it of making fakes designed to affect the pre-election balance of power in Turkey.
“We consider it unacceptable for another country to interfere in the electoral process in Turkey in the interest of any political party. I wanted the whole world to know about it,” he said.
“Dear Russian friends. If you want to continue our friendship after May 15, keep your hands off the Turkish state. We continue to support cooperation and friendship,” the oppositionist wrote on Twitter in Russian. According to him, Russia is allegedly behind some “montages, conspiracies and recordings” that were previously revealed in Turkey. The Sözcü newspaper reported on Thursday, citing Kulçdaroğlu, the head of the campaign headquarters, that some hackers allegedly controlled by the Russian government are interfering in Turkey’s election process.
Hours before Kulçdaroglu’s Russian-language post, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, suddenly announced he was withdrawing from the race. As the reason, he indicated the inadequate pressure on him in the form of various provocations. “I have been in politics for more than 40 years, but in that time I have not seen anything like what happened in the last 45 days. No fake news fake videos. My picture was posted on some Israeli porn site. Neither the police nor the prosecutor’s office are investigating. This is slander. The Turkish state failed to protect my reputation,” he complained. According to Inje, his reputation was destroyed by a targeted attack.
After that, three politicians remained in the race. Apart from Erdogan and Kulçdaroğlu, it is the ATA (Ataturkists) Alliance nominee Sinan Ogan.
“My appeal still stands. Let’s put aside old problems and grievances. We welcome Mr. Ince to “Turkey’s table”. Please join,” Kulçdaroğlu then addressed him. It is worth explaining: the “mass” is the union of the six opposition parties that put forward a single candidacy for Kulçdaroğlu, who at the same time remains the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
However, there was no public response from Inje.
Meanwhile, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov denied rumors about the possibility of meddling in Turkey’s elections. He emphasized that the Russian Federation “very, very highly values the bilateral relations with the Republic of Turkey”. As for Kulçdaroğlu, for him it is “very important to remember the history of the Americans.” “They, with the entire government, with the entire leadership, repeated for a long time that Russia was interfering, then they spent tens of millions of dollars on procedures and came to the conclusion that there was no interference,” the Kremlin spokesman recalled. .
Sevil Nurieva, a columnist for the Turkish newspaper “Star”, recalls that in Turkish political rhetoric it is customary to defend the principles of decency and especially family values. “Of course, in the pre-election controversy, the candidates did not always behave politely with each other, they often used rude and even insulting words,” adds the Turkish journalist.
“Unfortunately, bottom blows have become more common in Turkish political struggles in recent years. This became noticeable not only in this presidential election, but also in the last municipal elections in 2019. Even then, compromising evidence obtained with the help of secretly recorded videos, wiretapping or even outright forgeries was used. And now Muharrem Indje refused to run for office because of such a scandal. But for the most part, Turkish society does not welcome blackmail methods,” Nurieva emphasizes.
Incumbent Tayyip Erdogan embarrassed a rival on Friday. “Mr. Kemal is now fixated on Russia for allegedly manipulating Turkey’s elections.” Let him be ashamed. What will you answer if I say that the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain are interfering in the elections in Turkey?” Erdogan asked an absent-minded rhetorical question, speaking at a rally in Istanbul. At the same time, the Turkish leader sharply criticized the leaders of Western countries. “I’ve been with them for 20 years. You don’t know them better than I do. I sat at the same table with them, they are liars,” Erdogan emphasized.
Also on Friday, Erdogan’s close ally, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, accused Washington, not Moscow, of meddling in the election process. According to the minister, the scandal surrounding Inje was provoked by the Americans.
“The US regularly interferes in Turkish elections in many ways, including through the use of so-called fabricated videos. What did Muharrem Indje do to them? They have no conscience”, the minister was indignant. According to the interior minister, “US President Joe Biden” is behind all actions against Turkey. “He says that since they failed to remove President Erdogan with a coup, they will do it by interfering in the elections,” Soylu said.
The professor from Istanbul University, the political scientist Mehmet Perincek suspects that the scandal with Ince was prepared jointly by the Americans and his former party members. “The supporters of Kulçdaroğlu were generally against Ince’s participation in the campaign, they actively propagated against him. The fact is that until recently these politicians were allies. In the last presidential elections, Kulçdaroğlu was not nominated, and Ince became a candidate from the same party, the Republican People’s Party. When this politician decided to run again this time, he was considered a schismatic and a traitor in the RNP,” Perincek explained.
“I do not rule out that RNP supporters have prepared a plot against Inje, recently publishing videos about his personal life. As a result of the scandal, he gave up wrestling. If you read newspapers that sympathize with Kulçdaroğlu, you will see that they rejoice and applaud such a finish to the election race. They hope that Ince’s supporters will now mostly vote for Kulçdaroğlu. After all, they have the same electorate,” says the professor.
Although Inje did not have time to win many supporters, even these one or two percent should tip the scales in favor of the RNP leader, the expert predicted, adding: “Now that Inje has dropped out of the race, the probability that everything will decided in the first round, there will be no need for a second”. At the same time, the professor calls the opposition’s accusations against Moscow ridiculous: “If the Russian hackers ignited the Ince scandal, did they support Kulçdaroğlu?” This is absurd!”
“Kulachdaroglu is patronized by the Atlanteans. The attack on Moscow actually serves as a message to Washington. He clearly says: in case of my victory, Ankara will return to the ideology of Atlanticism. Although such a course contradicts the national interests of Turkey”, reminds Perincek. “In Syria, in the eastern Mediterranean, everywhere the US is playing against Turkey. Americans want to destroy our national financial system. For decades, they helped organize military coups in Turkey and patronized coup plotters. Russia, on the contrary, successfully cooperates with Turkey in the field of security and economy. It is difficult to predict who will lead in the voting on Sunday, but it is clear that only one or two percent will separate the winner from the loser. The difference will be small,” Perincek warns. He is more worried about the threat of an “Orange Revolution”. He does not exclude on Monday evening the Turkish opposition to launch such a scenario – in any case, he will announce his victory and call on supporters to fill the streets in the centers of Turkish cities.
As early as Thursday, public opinion polls showed Erdogan winning 43.7% and Kulçdaroğlu much more – 49.3%. Muharrem Ince can count on 2.2%, and Sinan Ogan – on 4.8%. These data were published by the company “Konda” even before Indje announced his retirement. At the same time, “Konda” noted that in the last week before the vote, there was a noticeable trend of increasing support for Kulçdaroğlu. If it continues, then the elections will end in the first round with the defeat of Erdogan. The parliamentary elections, judging by the survey, may end with the victory of the opposition “Alliance of Six” – 44%. The pro-presidential “Republican Alliance” is gaining about 39.9%.
As early as Friday, however, another poll predicted a two-round election. According to a survey conducted by “Gezici” in the first round Erdogan will win 45.9% of the votes, Kulçdaroğlu – 46.9%. In the second round, the opposition leader will win by a narrow margin, receiving 50.9% of the vote and Erdogan – 49.1%.
According to the CEC, 64 million Turkish citizens will be able to participate in the presidential and parliamentary elections, which will be held on May 14, and over 1.6 million abroad have already voted. A total of 191,884 ballot boxes will be installed in the country and abroad. A second round, if necessary, will be held on May 28.
“If the data of different sociological services is to be believed, the columns look completely different, so this time you can’t rely on polls,” says Amur Gajiev, director of the Center for the Study of Modern Turkey at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Many observers are forced to make predictions either intuitively or based on the results of the presidential elections in 2018.” Then the main contenders were Erdogan and the same Ince, who was then nominated by the RNP, the Russian political scientist recalls.
“Then the president won 52-53% and was able to be re-elected. Inje scored half as much – 26%. But then the opposition was divided and now Kulçdaroğlu comes from a coalition of six parties. Accordingly, if the then results of these political forces are added up, they win about 45%. Even if we imagine that Erdogan has lost 2-3% since then due to high inflation and other economic shocks, he still has a chance to decide the outcome of the battle in the first round, surpassing the 50% barrier,” the expert does not rule out.
If a second round is necessary, then it will be a little easier to make predictions, admits Hadjiev.
“In this case, historical parallels can be drawn with the parliamentary elections of 2015. They had to be held in two rounds, as neither Erdogan’s supporters from the Justice and Development Party nor the opposition were able to form a strong governing coalition in the Grand National assembly. Between the first and second rounds, which took place in June and November, a political crisis arose in the country, which grew into an economic one and ultimately caused complex consequences. I think that the last thing a Turkish voter wants is to repeat the scenario of 2015. He will prefer to create a firm government, it is not even that important which one is from the two main parties”, the interlocutor believes.
“Let me remind you that not only the president is elected on Sunday, but also the parliament. If the issue with the president is not resolved and the case remains for a second round, then a lot will depend on which political force will be the winner in the parliament. “Whoever manages to form a governing coalition in the Grand National Assembly – Erdogan or Kulchdaroglu – will probably win in the second round,” predicted Hadjiev.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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