/ world today news/ The presidential elections are the last opportunity to determine the future of the country themselves, the Turkish opposition assures. Erdogan’s rival Kemal Kulçdaroğlu even called on his supporters not to come out on May 14 in case of victory to avoid provocations. About what is happening in Ankara – in the material.
Hello and strength
At the end of April, Recep Tayyip Erdogan fell ill during an interview with journalists. Immediately there were rumors about the serious health condition of the president. They talked about stroke, stomach cancer. The administration denied all this, referring to a slight cold. But supporters of the current head of state in social networks did not hide their concern.
Erdogan reassured them by demonstrating that he is in excellent shape. The very next day after the accident, he, together with Vladimir Putin, remotely participated in the fuel delivery ceremony at the Akkuyu NPP. After that, with his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev, he visited the Technofest technology exhibition, where he told the media that everything was fine with him and named the candidates for the country’s first flight to the ISS. Doubts about the president’s vitality were finally dispelled after his multi-thousand-strong rallies in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir.
But the debate about the transition to a parliamentary form of government is unfolding. The opposition is calling for the weakening of presidential powers to restore the freedom of the courts and the media, to normalize relations with the United States and to renew attempts to join the European Union. Erdogan accuses opponents of building an election campaign on a split in society, of leading the country to the past while he to the future.
Poll differences
The president has no doubt that he will win in the first round. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said the US and EU have ordered the opposition to oust Erdogan, but the people will decide everything.
Candidates’ chances are almost equal. According to the research institute “Bulgu Research”, 49.5% of voters are ready to vote for 76-year-old Kemal Kulçdaroğlu, and 41.5% for 69-year-old Erdogan. In the second round, the opposition also has an advantage – 51.4%. However, the Optimar sociological center has the opposite results: in the second round, Erdogan received 51.4%.
A week before the vote, on May 7, both candidates will hold mass rallies in Istanbul. Erdoğan will speak in the Garden of the Nation on the territory of the former Ataturk Airport, Kulçdaroğlu, in Maltepe Park. “We will not allow the election to be stolen. We have absolutely no confidence in either Erdogan or the High Election Commission. Therefore, for the last year and a half, we have been working to protect all polling stations from violations,” Kulçdaroğlu warns.
View from outside
These elections will be the most difficult for Erdogan, the TV channel “France 24” is sure. The country is in crisis after the devastating earthquake that killed over 50,000 people.
Erdogan is a pragmatic economic reformer who has become an authoritarian leader in 20 years of rule, analysts from the American publication “Intercept” believe. But if the opposition does not attract the support of the Kurds, it will not see victory.
The Washington Post points out that even if Erdogan loses, the new authorities will not be able to reform the country quickly. First, the former president will have an influential parliamentary party, and second, the political institutions have been developing under his control for about 20 years and cannot be reversed in a few months.
Politico calls Kulçdaroğlu “the Turkish Gandhi” and expects deep reforms after his victory, but admits that anti-Western sentiment is strong in the country. And in any case, the priority task of the elected president will not be state reforms, but overcoming the economic crisis (inflation is still over 40%) and eliminating the consequences of the earthquake.
Non-lethal combat
Experts confirm that the chances of Kılıçdaroğlu and Erdoğan to win are about the same. And hardly any of them will win in the first round.
“Against the leader of the opposition is, for example, the fact that he is an Alevi. They are unlikely to vote for him in the province. At first, he advocated cooperation with the West, which also did not appeal to many, but recently he declared friendship with Russia. On the other hand , the unity of the opposition does not promise an easy ride for Erdogan, and no one knows who will be supported by voters abroad, and they are about five percent,” said Alexey Obraztsov, a leading researcher at the HSE Center for Asian and African Studies.
And yet it gives Erdogan an advantage in the second round because he is able to use powerful information resources to divide the opposition along ethnic and religious lines. “He will speak simultaneously at a rally, on television, on the radio… Even from a coffee grinder,” emphasizes Obraztsov.
On the other hand, Erdogan’s electorate is suffering from an economic crisis from which its leader still cannot find a way out, recalls Turkish political analyst Iqbal Dur. In addition, the leading political force of the Kurds, the People’s Democratic Party, has decided to support Kulçdaroğlu, which will bring him 10-15% of the vote.
“If only Erdogan and Kulçdaroğlu participate in the elections, the current president will be able to be re-elected because he is the most popular politician in the country. However, we are dealing with coalitions. Erdoğan relies on extreme religious and nationalist forces, his opponent – on those who do not agree with them,” explains Durr.
The interlocutors did not consider the earthquake and rumors of Erdoğan’s illness to be decisive factors. Although the tremors affected a total of 10% of the population, the seismic hazard and the corruption of Turkish officials were not a secret to anyone. Another thing is that cities that are considered to be Erdogan strongholds were mostly affected – this could affect the results of the vote.
At the same time, according to experts, the Western media is deliberately exaggerating Turkey’s future because of Erdogan’s desire to stick to an independent foreign policy, not one led by the US and its allies. According to Durr, if he is re-elected, on the contrary, he can bring more democracy to the political life of the republic and reconcile with the parliament.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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